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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (36497)	8/9/2000 11:02:55 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

Brian, DPAC was down 30% today. >>A shortage of DRAM chips will take a bite out of memory-module maker Dense-Pac Microsystems' third quarter earnings, the company said Wednesday in a potential warning to the rest of the personal computer industry.<< Gottfried

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (36497)	8/9/2000 11:10:54 PM
From: w0z	Respond to of 70976

Regarding the DRAM shortage, this bears repeating our favorite analyst: Message 12728463 Salomon Smith Barney's Jon Joseph published the following on Saturday, January 29: "DRAM spot prices in a free fall. "DRAM spot prices continued to fall as manufacturers built inventory. Prices for mainstream 64Mbs fell over $1.00 to below $7.00, while prices for mainstream 128Mbs fell to the low $16 range, down from $18.00 the previous week. Broker sentiment grows increasingly negative. Volumes remain light and prices are falling so fast now that brokers are taking losses if they hold onto any inventory whatsoever. Anecdote last week suggested that large DRAM makers were peddling several hundred thousand 64Mb parts at a $0.20-0.30 discount to spot. Clearly, inventories are overflowing as yields on 0.18-micron and 0.21-micron shrinks improve faster than the market is able to absorb. Micron (MU, 3S) and Samsung product, relatively rare in the spot market over the last few quarters, historically sold for a slight premium. We are now finding ample supply from these vendors, selling at spot market price. We believe contract pricing is heading lower, with most estimates suggesting $7.25-7.50 for the first half of February, down from the current $8.00 range. In addition, one large maker anticipated contract falling to $6.00 by the end of February, while another estimated $4.00 prices by summer." MU's price since the end of January: siliconinvestor.com

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (36497)	8/10/2000 12:01:18 AM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 70976

Brian, The current confusion reminds me of the process for optimizing performance for our mainframe computers back in the 70s and 80s. Processing demand tended to almost always exceed available capacity. To simplify, one of three key bottlenecks had to be addressed to improve system performance: Processor speed; DASD / Channel capacity; or Main Memory. Adding one resource would almost always expose a bottleneck in one of the other two resources. The same thing is happening today with semiconductors. The global economy is expanding. Healthy economies around the world are now the rule. Demand for chips has created bottlenecks in Logic, then Capacitors and now DRAM. As one of these bottlenecks get removed demand increases for the other types of chips. We're seeing the proliferation of the information age and its resultant productivity improvements take over the world. This cycle isn't going to stop any time soon. And BS from Slimey Smith Baloney won't change that reality. Ian.