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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: onurbius who wrote (2591)	8/10/2000 1:52:30 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi I have not run the numbers tonight as it's late but I'm it sounds eminently reasonable that one can improve the percentage of profitable trades as well as increase the average profit per trade (and decrease the drawdowns on bad trades ) by using a combination of the two. what I know for a fact is that results differ as too which system or group of systems give the best performance depending on which time series and periods of time one back tests. And by going further back and using all the data , say since the NASD started trading in 1973 does NOT improve the profitability of the trading system that is derived through optimization. I highly encourage everyone who is remotely interested in the markets to and this topic especially to get both of Jack Schwager's books. "Market Wizards" and "The New Market Wizards" the books are comprised of a series of interviews with the very best traders and money managers, who have a record of profitability that we all would be very fortunate to attain. Some of these individuals have done major quantitative studies and in fact people like Ed Seykota and Wiliam Eckhardt (the partner of Richard Dennis) are pioneers in this field. Both of them have tremendous insights and advice into quantitative systems. But their are many others who bring much to the table in these books. Schwager's complete guide to the futures market is also excellent and his voluminous charts of the commodity markets of the late 70's and early '80's will make your mouth water for the opportunities that shall unfold later this decade when the next mamouth commodity bull market will most likely unfold. (yes working with Gresham's law and the history of Paper Money, the ultimate debasing of the currency seems to be at least a period occurrance) They can provide you with more insights and research results than 50000 hours of testing and research and can point you in the direction of more refined studies. Ultimately the key cornerstone concepts of money/risk management, prove to of greater significance rather than specific trading system. However discipline and consistency in a market trading approach is important. and certainly if one uses a trading system that is not rigorous in it's approach, and can work some of the time then positive results will not be experienced. One Final thought on those books. Jimmy Rodgers, who set out with George Soros as the other partner and established the ultra famous Quantum fund in 1973 had one of the most compelling insights of anyone in his interview. His interview was conducted in 1987 or 1988 and He pointed out that the Precious Metals Bull market of the 1970's generated so many new mines and so much new production that this production would keep Gold in a bear market due to over supply through the mid to late 1990's was absolutely on the mark. The man is another one of the geniuses you will meet in these books. John