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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: microhoogle! who wrote (58042)	8/10/2000 10:20:24 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Murali Boyapati: I have been hibernating for a few days. I don't know the answer to that. Has anyone seen a recent poll? When consumer sentiment shifts from "feeling good" to "concern", spending begins to contract...this could be first evidence! I don't know... Regards, LG

To: microhoogle! who wrote (58042)	8/10/2000 10:50:05 AM
From: Peace	Respond to of 99985

Consumer spending has definitely shown signs of slowing down. The 2Q GDP pointed to that. Recent retail sales numbers show that. Even Greenspan thinks that based on his recent HH testimony. The retailers have seen their stocks take a beating which means investors see that too. A lot of people fear whether we may get a recession next year. I dont think the fed will let that happen. The fed will likely need to cut rates next year as the economy will likely slow too much. Just like sentiment indicators the 50bp hike by fed was a sign of fed worrying too much. Now they have overdone the tightenings. Half the rate increases still have to show up in the economy. If the stock market goes on a wild upside run like last winter it will certainly reignite consumer spending. Apart from that unlikely scenario, the fed will likely be forced to cut rates next year. OTOH if we get another severe correction in the market the fed may have to act sooner. Of course this is only my opinion.