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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tony Viola who wrote (159364)	8/10/2000 2:27:42 PM
From: TigerPaw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

I would feel better about this report if CSCO were holding up better. It's pretty hard to impress the buyers right now. TP

To: Tony Viola who wrote (159364)	8/10/2000 3:13:12 PM
From: Jean M. Gauthier	Respond to of 176387

Hi people, I'mmmmmm Baaaaaack ! Jusr a couple of points.... Point 1: Seymour at TheStreet.com had this to say, which I agree with... While we're waiting for the Dell (DELL:Nasdaq - news - boards) report this afternoon, a few thoughts on valuing a company as it moves through successive stages of development: I expect a pretty good number from Dell, with second-quarter revenue a shade under $8 billion, about a 30% jump from the same quarter last year, and with earnings per share around the consensus of 21 cents, up from 19 cents last quarter. Might even do a little better on the EPS. But I don't expect to see Dell resume its bottle-rocket ascent. Not now, not ever. The law of large numbers has come into play. Moreover, the law of reality, as regards its industry, is coming into play. The overall corporate-PC business, Dell's primary business, is growing at about 11% a year. I don't see that slowing materially over the next few years ... but I see no reason to believe it will increase materially. Dell can beat that growth rate, but not by huge deltas, quarter after quarter. Meanwhile, Dell is doing other smart things, such as pushing its server business, where it has quietly become a real power in the "rack server" market, and making a play to become a supplier of e-services. Both are rich opportunities, and both can push Dell's obvious goal of growing faster than its industry. But we have to recognize that Dell is a maturing company, in a maturing industry -- some would say, a mature industry. As we move into the Post-PC Era, Dell's efforts in services, in servers, and probably eventually in non-PC devices, can keep it prosperous, ahead of competitors less smart and agile. But there are no miracles in this business. Thus we need to see Dell as a different company today, a different kind of company, than it has been throughout the 1990s -- and judge it by different measures. We need to compare Dell's sales and EPS numbers with the growth of its industry today, and by the EPS performance of its peers in the PC business -- Compaq (CPQ:NYSE - news - boards), Gateway (GTW:NYSE - news - boards), a few more -- today. Not with Dell's performance in, say, 1997. This is pretty obvious stuff, and I apologize for boring those already on board on this. But I probably get more emails from RealMoney.com/TheStreet.com readers about Dell than about any other company ... and it's pretty clear that an awful lot of Dell holders and Dell followers haven't yet caught on that the game has changed. Finally: A fair number of those emails these days ask if I still expect, as I wrote earlier this year, for Dell to be in the 70s by the end of this year, based (as I said) mainly on the growth in its server business. No. I think Dell will continue to do well measured by the appropriate metrics, and I think its server business will remain darned important, an industry-leader in the x86-servers arena. But given the dynamics of the market since March, I don't think Dell's going to be in the 70s this fall and winter. ---- Point 2: I hope I am wrong, but I think Dell will disappoint... at least on the sales side, if not the eps... Point 3: I wish everyone that is LONG Dell (not me anymore) a GREAT quarter, and a blowout. Hopefully that will help the NAZ shake off these stupid blies, when all companies are reporing great outlooks for Q3 & Q4 and investors are ignoring it.. Have a great earnings day, Dell holders Jean