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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (31747)	8/10/2000 2:35:56 PM
From: Rick Buskey	Respond to of 57584

I agree with all your statements D.O.-----keep your stop in your head and don't throw it on LVL II----because the MM's will stop you out. I am seeing some short-covering coming in here.

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (31747)	8/10/2000 2:57:34 PM
From: DlphcOracl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

Investor Alert -- Chip Stocks The report and earnings from AMAT were little short of stunning. By any and every metric, they exceeded analysts estimates. Their management is conservative and, to a person, they said that their largest problem was trying to keep up with demand, so much so that they are ramping up additional production facilities. I consider this report the most important in the chip sector because unlike Intel, they span the entire range of chip production, rather than being primarily PC-oriented. They certainly cast doubt on Jonathan Joseph's (SSB) analyst report stating that we had reached the peak of current chip cycle. Having said all this, chip stocks are STILL down 30-75% from YTD-highs and are extraordinary bargains. I think the next two weeks will give us one of the best time frames for adding onto or initiating positions in this sector. Rather than extreme boTtom-fishing in the small-caps, I'd advise sticking with quality. There are many top-tier names that present great value. Some suggestions: chip-stocks: ADI, TXN, ATML, IDTI, ALTR, XLNX chip-makers: AMAT, NVLS, small-cap: AMKR, KOPN I'd avoid ANAD (weak RS all year long) and LSI (poor top-line revenue growth over last two quarters). Although the creme-de-la-creme are AMCC, BRCM, and PMCS, they are already priced for perfection; unless they drop off dramatically, I wouldn't chase them. IMO, when techs return to favor later in the year, this sector will outperform. Comments always welcome, of course.

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (31747)	8/10/2000 9:45:36 PM
From: Paullie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

DO, you are right on about the volatility of LPTH. On the other hand, one thing that I have learned from Rande is that if a stock becomes out of favor, the disciplined trader will cut losses until it is proven that the company is back in favor. Do I feel lpth is out of favor right now with the public? I will be able to answer that better tomorrow. If LPTH is weak tomorrow, then I will probably exit completely and wait for turn around or something positive. Until then it will drift with the NAZ. What has changed about LPTH - IMO, the time frame has changed on LPTH's future stock price explosion. (I say this honestly - I still feel LPTH has the right ingredients for an extreme growth situation.) One of the issues that has been brought up on the Yahoo LPTH board (a very good board actually) is the backorder number. When comparing this number to the information published during the last quarterly statement with the past and current revenue - then throwing Horizon into the equation - you have the situation where it seems there should have either been higher revenues or higher backorders. We will have to wait for the SEC report for more details. (Sorry, I do not have time to run through the numbers - good explanations on yahoo though.) So, bottom line is that LPTH could still knock our socks off with an awesome announcement, but IMO the potential for a 30% drop from here is pretty high. I do not like to lose 30% of my money in a week or two! (And, IMO the upside after an announcement will be 10%-15% on the first day - unless buyout.) So, hold for two weeks to potentially lose 1/3 of your money or make 15% of your money. I know, I know - not exactly how it works, but this is basically how I perform my risk analysis. Disclosure: I lightened my load today by about 1/2 on LPTH and will drop rest on further weakness. TA??? Mark or anyone, I would be interested in hearing TA on LPTH current situation. Thanks! One more thing - I really do think LPTH has those ingredients, but I am beginning to think that they need to be stirred/mixed just a little bit longer. paullie