Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Applied Micro Circuits Corp (AMCC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Guy Gordon who wrote (617)	8/10/2000 5:00:22 PM
From: MARK BARGER	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1805

OT: Gordon, Cree does pretty much have a lock on blue and green LED's. They are now every bit as bright as Nichia and Toyoda and aprox. 1/2 the price. Also Cree, using a SiC substrate, is the only green/blue LED diode manufacturer that has acceptable ESD ratings for the automobile industry. So. to my knowledge Cree is the only supplier of white/blue/green LED's presently to the automobile industry. The automobile industry is just in the 1st inning of LED applications. There are reports that in the next couple of years, automobiles will basically replace all of the interior incandescant lighting with LED clusters, using upwards of 1000 LED's per car, all requiring ESD ratings. It wouldn't hurt my feelings if the moissanite sales completely went away. They are now down to approx. 5% of revenues. Many of us were disappointed that the transistions to 3" wafers is taking so long. I looks like it will be another 6-9 months before that takes place. But even with the 2" wafer Cree's gross margins are over 55%. You well know how difficult SiC is to work with. From what I understand, when Cree is able to mass produce a $15 blue laser, they will be able to sell all they make to the DVD industry. They are around 12 months away from beginning mass production of these. Cree's SiC RF transistors are a discontinous technology. These devices will replace several chips and can be operated at much higher temps. than the GaAs transistors. They reportedly are at least twice as efficient as what is currently used. Cree is presently building a 250,000 sq.ft. manufacturing facility to handle this production, which should be finished in the next 6 months. The 2nd half of this fiscal year Cree will see substantial revenues from the RF products. The CEO said 10% of this year's revenues would come from RF (read $20 mil.), and I suspect much more than that. When Cree gets these RF design wins, there is no turning back away from SiC, and who else can make them. Cree will also be introducing an LED lighting device the 2nd half of this year for home/commercial use. The LED's are carrying the heavy load for Cree now. BUT, soon we will see news of RF purchase orders, and when that happens Cree will be viewed in a whole new fashion. RF will be at least 10% of revs. this year and close to 40-50% revs. in fiscal 2002, by which time hopefully the blue laser will kick in. Admittedly, Cree has to execute on this. But I think Cree is still in the 2nd inning of this game. You mentioned sizzle but no steak. The next 12 months are when we will see if there is any beef there. Sorry to take up so much space. MB