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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mani1 who wrote (4331)	8/10/2000 3:56:54 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Hi Mani: My apologies to both the thread and Paul...I will be more vigilant wrt the use of tags in future posts...

To: Mani1 who wrote (4331)	8/10/2000 4:25:52 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

Mani: I think shares purchased at $90 will reap a high return by December 31...so it goes without saying that shares purchased today represent a phenomenal bargain if held through that time frame...I know it sounds silly when AMD is being decimated as it has been since releasing record before tax earnings of $1.51 just 1 month ago when AMD was flirting with $90 (now $56-1/2), but I am still looking for a minimum of $150 by year end and possibly significantly higher...Company fundamentals have not changed in the past month as far as I can ascertain (i.e 3.6 and 7.2 million Athy targets for Q3 and Q4 will be realized and flash prices are rising, not falling) and once this negative market phase has run its course, I suspect we will see new all-time highs in a hurry, equally as much to the disbelief of many as are the lows we are seeing today!!! What I do know about tech stocks is that when they build momentum in a certain direction, they inevitably overshoot reasonable targets, as AMD is doing today...I'm nibbling but will wait for 3 successive up days before I jump in with both feet...The upside at $56-1/2 if one is prepared to hold til Dec 31 is at least 5 to 1 imho...that is to say that from here $5 price increments are equally as likely as $1 decrements imho!!! (I just don't think there is any missing fundamental info to explain the sizeable decline from $90 to $57 and, consequently, when the market realizes this, AMD is going to reverse this $33 decline very very rapidly...) When??? I thought it would have by now...but the market is saying AMD is overvalued like many other SOX equities...the market, as when in panic mode which seems to be the current case, is undiscrimating...at some point the market will sift out the wheat from the chaff, and I'm assuming that projected record Q3 and Q4 earnings, when realized or when apparent, will ensure AMD's inclusion within the wheat category...It's anybody's guess when this will occur, but imho, it will occur sooner than later, and the outcome will be a much fairer valuation vis a vis its competitors...The market cannot ignore the likelihood of AMD's record earnings performance in Q3 and Q4 much longer!!!