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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (2596)	8/10/2000 4:02:00 PM
From: wlheatmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Message 14195511

To: John Pitera who wrote (2596)	8/10/2000 4:41:30 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

John: Thanks for the read. I was waiting for more of a pullback b/4 adding to my positions (the greed factor) and it now looks like I'll have to pay up. I have been whipsawed lately in this market in the tech area but I've been following the gas stocks and they have been pretty strong. (I beleive BR's weakness was due to their guidance of lower production than analyst forecasts). I still believe the market needs liquidity to move higher and not sure if its getting it. Back to the 71/72 time frame scenario. Oil & Gas will be better buy and holds than techs. Just look at the hair cuts when a company misses by a little never mind a lot. DVN looks like a great bargain at the 200. Nice pick up. Thanks again. Tim

To: John Pitera who wrote (2596)	8/10/2000 5:26:51 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi John: Here is a table showing the gains and losses in the S&P & NAZ since 1972. It also illustrates the return on $100 invested as of January 1, 1972 by year. Notice if one was invested in the S&P one did not start making a return until 1982 while the NAZ was in 1979. I'm posting this for a few reasons. 1) To point out the buy and hold strategy can be very dangerous unless one has a long time horizon. 2) To illustrate the 1973 & 1974 period which was the 1st oil crisis in recent memory (my memory of course) where the inflation filtering thru the economy wrecked havoc with the stock markets. My limited (very) experience from memory was the oil & oil field service companies did very well during this period. This can be wrong but I remember AET's investment in Geosource (an oil field service company, headquartered in Houston at the Galleria complex) did very well in the 1972 to 1982 period. Investment Analysis Return on Return on $100 $100 Invested in Invested in Year S&P Nasdaq S&P S&P 500 500 500 1 1972 15.6% 17.2% 116 117 2 1973 -17.4% -31.1% 95 81 3 1974 -29.7% -35.1% 67 52 4 1975 28.1% 29.8% 86 68 5 1976 19.2% 26.1% 102 86 6 1977 -11.2% 7.3% 91 92 7 1978 1.1% 12.3% 92 103 8 1979 12.3% 25.1% 103 129 9 1980 25.8% 33.9% 130 173 10 1981 -9.7% -3.1% 117 168 11 1982 14.8% 18.7% 135 199 12 1983 17.3% 19.9% 158 239 13 1984 1.4% 11.2% 160 265 14 1985 26.3% 31.4% 202 349 15 1986 14.6% 7.4% 232 374 16 1987 2.0% -5.3% 237 355 17 1988 12.4% 15.4% 266 409 18 1989 27.3% 19.3% 338 488 19 1990 -6.6% -17.8% 316 401 20 1991 26.3% 56.8% 399 629 21 1992 4.5% 18.5% 417 745 22 1993 7.1% 14.8% 447 855 23 1994 -1.5% -3.2% 440 828 24 1995 34.1% 39.9% 590 1,159 25 1996 20.3% 22.7% 709 1,422 26 1997 31.1% 21.6% 930 1,729 27 1998 26.7% 39.6% 1,178 2,414 28 1999 19.1% 84.1% 1,402 4,445 29 06/00 -2.5% -1.0% 1,367 4,401 308.57% 476.30% 10,922 22,777

To: John Pitera who wrote (2596)	12/6/2000 1:14:49 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

WOW a single Natural Gas Futures contract has gone up $43,000 since the end of Oct. The Jan 2001 NG contract has traded up to 8.75 today. It's coming close to winning the title of the Market of the Year even my targets have been taken out.... Yes, Natural Gas is going higher. I imagine 5$ is a minimum and under the right constellation of events, I think we could see $7 Natural within 4 to 8 months. Message 14195507 this has been an excellent example of a market that one tries to buy on a reaction (earlier this year) and then just stays long with a trailing stop loss. It also is important to remember that when a market goes into new alltime high ground, the further upside can be so much greater than the conventional wisdom. we might even see $12 in this type of market, but it's a very dangerous market to trade now if one is not a commercial. a couple of old posts talking about the bullish ascending triangle back below 4.60 in the summer and the contract specs. Message 13935506 Message 13935553 One more post I have dug out from this thread, talks about the Elliot Third of a third concept that Chip was asking about today, this may further clarify the earlier post to Chip. Re. selling the news on oil normally that is that case. when everyone is talking about a trend it's time for it to reverse. occasionally you can find instances were everyone is talking about something and to use an elliot wave concept, it's a third of a third wave advance in a bull mkt or it would be a decline in a bear mkt. it's a point where their is mass realization of a trend and it propels the trend much further even though everyone "knows" about it. The issue is how many people are long these energy stocks and have been in the energy complex bull mkt?? the fundamental situation in NG and heating oil, seems to indicate higher prices, but I agree that it's "front page" news so we'll have to watch it closely. John+ Message 14212272 John