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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (36582)	8/10/2000 5:48:56 PM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Cary, >Doom (the down cycle) is lurking out there. How far out is the only question. You don't hold out any possibility that, with wireless, broadband and Internet infrastructure chips revenues surpassing that of computer related chips, while those continue to grow, a serious downturn might not occur 2, 3 or 4 years out? I do. The past doesn't always repeat. There used to be major wars every 25 years or so. When's the next one? Tony

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (36582)	8/10/2000 6:01:44 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

Cary, re >The analysts can't clearly and honestly explain the cycle because they would be required to explain why they are all at BUY at the top and HOLD at the bottom.< Not universally true. I charted analysts vs price through 8/4/00. Most AMAT recs were timely 4Q98 and 1Q99. Message 14182703 Even for KLIC there were a few timely upgrades. The 7 or 8 downgrades after the 25% haircut last week are a disgrace to the analyst profession, though. geocities.com Gottfried

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (36582)	8/10/2000 6:46:38 PM
From: scott_jiminez	Respond to of 70976

"Whether or not doom is on the horizon is still a matter of opinion......" Don't know 'bout your holdings, but I'd wager that 95%+ of SEM stockholders would agree with the statement, 'We're in doom right here, right now'. You are referring to the actual state of the industry. Most folks are referring to the state of their stocks. Most SEM stocks are down 50%+ in the last 4-6 weeks. Thus the industry 'doom horizon' is not really relevant at this moment since the doom in the stocks has become manifest. The real question when will we emerge from the investor (notice I didn't say analyst) doom mentality. Once that has occurred we'll probably have about a 2 year window during which we can worry about the next doom of the industry. I would imagine 'doom', in the end, is defined by share prices rather than the state of the sector. By this characterization, there's no question were fully immersed in doom, right here, right now. The reason we supposedly don't see doom right now is because we're smack in the middle of it, 'lurking' in it. The real question is how deep this doom is and how far out it will stretch.