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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric K. who wrote (4369)	8/10/2000 6:07:42 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

RE:"That being said, a person who applies qualitative techniques and pattern recognition to charts could perhaps have some success." The simple fact that AMD could give up half of it's entire runup from 16 to 97 with seemingly great fundamentals going forward should suggest that there is certainly something more at work here than simple "fundamentals". Fundamentals alone are obviously NOT telling the whole story. This is where TA comes in...no, not perfect but at least a look at the psycological side of the markets... So one can either cry about AMD going down on great fundamentals or try and gauge it using TA... The mix between the two seems the best path. Unfortunately, TA works best when you already know the longer term trend. By the time one realizes the trend has changed it can really hurt. Jim

To: Eric K. who wrote (4369)	8/10/2000 6:24:07 PM
From: AK2004	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Eric re: not necessarily because of inherent laws governing stock prices, but due to how many traders believe such laws exist. Unfortunately, the only basic law in market is that the price equal to the price or $=$. So if we know that TA governs the market then TA becomes a law. The only problem with TA is that since the ones who does not follow TA's would probably gain in the long rang you can not even call ta a zero zero game. So TA's loose on average but meanwhile it generates extra volatility ........... I assume that some ta's win but, imho, it is simple luck. Now, you have mentioned stochastic modeling (Brownian) which is a very popular thing nower days. It make some sense in bond valuation even though that no one goes far enough to develop really nice sophisticated process for long term projections. For individual stocks it is like developing a formula for human emotions and would be just as bad as ta. Regards -Albert