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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William Griffin who wrote (36593)	8/10/2000 7:33:17 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

As mentioned in the WSJ article, everyone's looking for a "soft landing" What stat or stats will signal this? or will Allan G just tell us later this month?? Good question. Alan will tell us and he will be believed and the shoppers will return to the stores(not that they went anywhere). This slowdown I think is primarily to be found in the p&l's of old economy cos who have been impacted by interest rates and for that matter gas prices and CANT really pass it along. Thats why no inflation. New eco cos have met some bumps in the road when old eco cos didnt order as much tech as they thought. See software companies. Rates will trend down from here starting in the fall and this will be known as the inflation that didnt happen that turned into the non-recession. Alan will be a hero and he will get a ticker tape parade down Broadway--he will be with the Mets when they win the World series-not the yankees.

To: William Griffin who wrote (36593)	8/10/2000 9:13:40 PM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 70976

I pointed out yesterday that AMAT has a habit of selling off the day after earnings come out, even when the report is good. I don't mean to paint myself as some kind of investing genius - far from it. But when you see the same thing happen quarter after quarter, with few exceptions, for five years, it doesn't take a brain surgeon to say that it could happen again. More serious, in my mind, is the negative reaction of the NASDAQ to the cluster of good news. If the semiconductor cycle holds up in the aftermath of the Fed's tightening campaign, that will be great, but right now Wall Street seems to be saying, "We'll believe it when we see it." What will it take to turn investor sentiment around? I mean really around, not just a temporary rally like we had from May to July. When I look at the Naz chart, it looks like we are due for another such rally sometime soon. But for sustained gains, my guess is that we will need to see not only an end to Fed aggressiveness, but an actual reversal of policy, into the realm lowering interest rates and expanding the money supply again.