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Technology Stocks : Net Perceptions, Inc. (NETP) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bernieb2 who wrote (2657)	8/10/2000 10:30:14 PM
From: rupert1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2908

Bernie: Its good to remember that $11 now is the equivalent of about $13+ last year when there was much fewer shares. Someone should do a proper comparative analysis. I think the issued shares used in EPS (loss per share) in 2Q 1999 was about 17 million. Now it is 27 million. It is sometimes instructive to look back at the posts on SI this time last year. NETP was moving in the 14-22 range for an eternity and then plunged to 9+ for about a week. The cheerleader was "stockman jack". Several times a day he would present a succinct bull case for NETP and every development was interpreted favourably. When things were going badly in the market he could always be relied on to give everyone a shot of positive thinking. I used to trade NETP quite a bit - and took it all with a grain of salt. In those days, information about NETP was even harder to come by than it is now. Anyway, one day stockman jack suddenly announced that he had capitulated, sold out his NETP and left the board. I think he conceded that despite its good fundamentals it was going nowhere. And I must say it did look desperate and was wearing everyone down. People missed him because his posts were informative and cheering. I think it was 2-3 weeks later that it started to move up strongly. I felt sorry for stockman - his fundamental analysis had been correct but he was in a market sector in which fundamentals takes a back-seat to momentum. At the end of the day, though, you have to stay with fundamentals. There are so many flip floppers on these boards that you would go crazy if you did not have a grasp of fundamentals. Last year, on RB, "Hetty Green" who has claimed a few times to be a German lawyer in his early 20's - lectured everyone on so-called fundamentals for about seven or eight months. (I say "so-called" because he never gave any fundamental analysis or any evidence of an understanding of what the company did - only references to private communications he said he had with company officials, and he seemed to live and die by press releases). People were not to sell until it was substantially over $100 whatever setbacks it had. He poured scorn on anyone who expected "quick profits" and who were frightened into selling by set-backs and so on. NETP was a hold, he said for several years. He waxed lyrical about the NETP ABC Nightline Program - congratulated the PR department and so on. Suddenly, this Spring, he turned against the stock and advised everyone to sell it and buy other stocks he favoured. He lambasted the company for the timing of the SPO and said he had sold out partly because of the SPO. I understand that this week he has take to saying that the ABC program was poor PR and the SPO was wonderfully timed. He has recently lectured longs on the virtues of selling, selling short and buying other stocks. The flip-flop could not have been more complete. I cite his public postings as a case of someone who claimed to be a fundamentalist but who is, in fact, a mo-mo player. Returning to old SI posts - look at the beginning of the year. There was another former cheerleader turned axe who was upset about NETP advance a week or so after he sold it and began attacking it. Even after the advance he called it a dead stock and so on. After that it went on to $66 and actually had a period of almost 3 months above $45. I do not underestimate the skill of those who can read market moods and trade effectively. I try to do it myself. But I try to keep trading and fundamental analysis separate. Fundamentally, NETP is a cinch. A fine product, an expanding market, a thorough - if dull - management, financial probity and a 100% record for exceeding analysts expectations. It is worth a lot more than it is valued at in the market and is a strong candidate for a takover in excess of $50. If I had ready cash I would buy it at these prices and expect 100% pretty soon.