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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mitch-c who wrote (36607)	8/10/2000 9:50:54 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

Mitch, One person's opportunity is another's "risky silicon scheme." I agree, and believe even $500 will not sound ludicrous too long from now. The tidal wave of silicon based consumer products of the coming years will necessitate a greater level of spending going forward. Of this there really is no argument. The rate of change in our lifestyles that is taking place even as we speak is not accounted for in any analyst estimates. As the semiconductor content in PC's diminishes in importance to the equipment sector, the Non-PC sector will become increasingly important to AMAT's rate of growth; it will become increasingly driven by the growth of cellular phones, wireless devices, PDA's, MP3 Players's, digital cameras, DVD's, HDTV's. These are some of the fastest growing segments of semiconductors and will be going forward. How much flash will be needed for ONLY the MP3 players 2-3 years out which will use probably 250-500MB of flash memory, up from the current 64MB? I am not certain of their specific estimates for such growth but would guess that it is most likely going to be proven low. People like digital products; and even more they like additional space for their content; a sort of Digital Media Moore's Law so to speak. I am speaking from experience. As an aside, this is the first year that the sales of digital cameras will surpass that of 35mm cameras. The times they are a changin' but apparently the old models are not. A "normal" 2-3 year cycle is going to accomodate PC growth and all of the gadgets above? I don't believe so; not by a long shot. Brian