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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (36608)	8/10/2000 10:00:39 PM
From: mitch-c	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

AMAT is a great company, and the gorilla of its industry, but it is not immune to economic cycles. Given recent price action, I think the more relevant cycle is the political one. An ad-hoc market correlation with presidential polls seems close. Bush picks Cheney and has a convention -- his numbers go up slightly, and so do the markets. Gore picks Lieberman, with a convention next week -- he gains back even, and the markets stay bellyflopped, even with good news. It's axiomatic that Wall Street hates uncertainty, and it seems clear that the aggregate investment community prefers Bush. (That's NOT necessarily anyone's personal preferences, so let's not start THAT flamewar! This is only an observation.) Four-year election cycles may be a bit too long for folks to think back on -- but assuming that Mr. Market gets what he seems to want in November, I'm guessing that AMAT gets an extra kick in the seat, with little significant motion until then. - Mitch

To: Math Junkie who wrote (36608)	8/11/2000 7:50:58 AM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 70976

Economic cycles yes but semi cycles as before in terms of time frame no. After the election we will get tax cuts which will be a mix of targeted cuts the dems want and an accross the board cut the republicans want. It all depends on which party control which branch. I am rooting for gridlock because as much as i would like the big Bush cut personally I dont believe that would be good for us at this point. And the Dems controlling congress and presidency scares the hell out of me. I do believe that the Fed will be quick to bring down rates if there is hard evidence that the landing isnt as soft as now projected. Market went down yesterday imo based on that fear of forward earnings lower than originally projected for a soft landing. As investor I think we are getting the opportunity of a lifetime beginning soon even if Fed not raising rates is discounted like amat and csco earnings. I have more buys in at amat at 60 and will continue to average down if need be.