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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chic_hearne who wrote (4592)	8/11/2000 7:37:45 PM
From: Monty Lenard	Respond to of 275872

chic, look at GE's chart back on 2/18. I bought GE on that day and sold it the next day (too early but I take my profits very quickly in this market. I point out that chart just to show the importance of that MA and to show you an EXCEPTION to the rule. When one goes there it usually bounces and then breaks it. Well GE did not break it(it was an exception...but GE is an exceptional stock)but I promise you you will find many many more that will bounce just like GE did but then close below it AFTER that bounce. My BELIEF is that this is the move we will see AMD make and this picture serves as a very good illustration. Now... IF AMD can trade up Monday and STAY above the 200 it should move on into the heavy resistance in the low 60 area. If it closes below that ma Monday I believe it will see much lower prices...strickly from a technical standpoint. Look at AMAT's chart on 7/21. I see this happen many at times where the bounce occurs just above the 200. I suspect this MAY be caused by the people who trade and ANTICIPATE the pop coming and they jump the gun and try to get in ahead of the other buyers. Just a little THEORY of mine and may not hold water. I know if I am looking at one that I think is getting ready to hit a price target that I know others are watching, I always put my buy just above it or even a buck above it (depending on volatility of the stock) just to be sure I get in on the move. I am willing to give up a bit of downside to be there. This ma battle that went on today and will continue Monday will speak volumes about what is going to happen to AMD's stock price SHORT TERM. There are many many brokers, institutions, and on and on that live and die with that moving average. To me it is the MOST important one there is. The others that these same people watch is the 20 and 50. Those are the 3. There are any number of them that traders use but for investors IMHO these are the only 3 they will ever need. I really do not think they need to be concerned about whether they use an exponential, weighted or simple or any other combinations. These are price areas. Now if anyone doesn't think the MM's and specialists watch them just look at some charts with those ma's. Watch how many times the price will move JUST under the 20 and then reverse. They use that to head fake people out of a stock before taking it up or even the reverse when they are going to go the other direction. Their job is to fool as many people as they can and believe me sometimes I think they know MY EXACT CHOKE point. I just make em pay me double when they do that and go with twice the size because I saw their move and know their intent then. So because a stock breaks JUST below a ma does not bother me. It is the candle it prints and what it does the next day that matters. As I said in another post to Albert yesterday I choose a couple of other indicators to tell me if the stock is overbought or oversold. If these are neutral then I would disregard the small break below the ma.. Right now AMD is technically oversold based on MY other indicators so I THINK we have a good chance of the bounce occurring Monday and maybe into Tuesday or Wednesday. At that point many things will have changed and other things can come into play. But based on my experience the bounce may very well be temporary. We will just have to see as the picture unfolds. BTW, IBM is showing a print of 124 3/4 but the intraday chart shows the high of 121.8125. I think the 124 3/4 is a bad quote. My point being that the 121 7/8 proved a formable price. Next stop is 125. Maybe that was Jim that asked me yesterday about IBM. Anyway I believe I told him 121 7/8 then 125. Monty PS DID NOT CHECK FOR TYPOS etc.