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To: Boplicity who wrote (3639)	8/12/2000 1:12:43 AM
From: Jeff Bond	Respond to of 13572

hi thread :o) Gregory, I know your name from prior posts, I was invited here by another poster who mentioned the thread. Here to toss in a possible trade idea, or two :o) 1. PLXT - pretty explosive semi company, MACD crossing today, along with viciously low volume signals potential jump very soon. I'm in at $29, current is $29.75, very nice intra-day reversal on Friday. Exit strategy for me is to sell when MACD fast line tops. 2. PSEM - Like this company a lot, have owned it since it was $12. MACD also about to cross, basing this possible trade on same concept as for PLXT. Exit strategy same, I'm going to buy on Monday as close to $50 as I can get. Rational investing is my preference, but I use technicals to trade short-term on several occasions. Prefer solid management teams, stellar profit margins, and no/low debt businesses. I'll typically trade on the long side, rarely short, I just don't have time to study it to become proficient. Long positions in SMTC (10/97 :o), GMST (05/00), PSEM (11/99), and PMCS (IPO :o). Best to all, and hope to contribute some useful information on occasion. Regards, JB P.S. I thought maybe I'd provide a link to a recent post, to clarify how I typically approach an investment for the long-haul. My experiences have taught me to be more selective in holding long-term, and I have performed much better since making the decision earlier this year. Message 14178388

To: Boplicity who wrote (3639)	8/12/2000 10:47:40 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13572

Greg this is just a feeling - but it is based upon the following information and speculations. Warning - long post. I believe stocks are overvalued in general. Look at the PE's people are willing to pay for stocks today vs what they were paying as late as 1998. Big big acceleration. There is a chart on this somewhere, can somebody find it and publish it. Lost my link. I know I know it not PE but PEG that matters, but I just do not think CSCO, NTAP, JDSU, PMCS etc etc etc can keep justifying PE's over 200-300. Growth on 50-250B companies just does not continue forever. Take a good look at QCOM. I know I know, fiber is "just starting" they say, but I do not believe this. Growth will continue (unlike QCOM that out and out stalled) BUT acceleration in growth will drop as will forward PE's and PEG's. I believe the FED over-tightened and there will be a recession some time next year. Stocks will drop in anticipation, the question is when. Look at the bond market on FRI. At the open, bonds were priced as if a "drop in interest rates" in august was possible. This is my understanding from ZEEV. This to me is a clear "early" indication to me that Greenspan overreacted. Note however, bonds did later recover to neutral (again this is my understanding), so I do not expect an interest rate drop or rise in August. This is an election year. I am very very suspicious of what happened this Spring. Stocks plunged 400 points and "all of a sudden someone started buying futures mysteriously". I do not believe the powers that be will allow the market to go to hell in a hand-basket right now. If liquidity is needed it will be supplied. With the action in the DOW, breaking solidly through the bearish diamond on Friday (if one believes these things and like it or not many people on the sidleines with cash do watch these things) it looks like we may have a near-term bottom on the NAZ out of sympathy if nothing else. Last week on the NAZ 100 point opening drop, the tick count dropped to -1100, this is very bearish and tick counts this bearish are usually found at the bottom. (We bottomed in May on a tick count of -1100). If we break through 4200 or so and get the usual OCT rally 4600-4700 or perhaps better is a possibility. If it takes liquidity to accomplish this, I believe it will be supplied for an election year "feel-good" rally. Now - ask yourself what happens after the election. Would a president who has 4 years to correct anything, do anything to stop a market selloff by raising liquidity or stepping in to buy futures. A big big NO! Earnings are in question right now. What will happen later this year or early next year if there is a real earnings scare, caused by a fear of recession, recession, bad earnings or worse yet all three (one after the other)? Valuation bear markets with intact fundamentals take 3-6 months to work out. Earnings or recession bear markets could take substantially longer. This is a long scenario and if you believe any of it thank Zeev not me. The above is my refinement or twist on it, if you would.