Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (36679)	8/12/2000 1:59:28 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 70976

I like your reasoning. I agree also. I think the time to worry will be when big companies decide they MUST have their own fabs to control their destiny. This sort of "thing" cycles just like flat management cycles. Right now we are in an "anti consolidation" phase where companies toss out anything not growing fast. Eventually, the companies get to be a bunch of R&D engineers and marketeers and someone with some manufacturing power will eventually take them apart during a tough time in the market and then the cycle will probably begin again where Harvard and Stanford teach that it is "hip" to buy a bunch of fabs so you can control your destiny.... Anyway, I tried to be short. I think this "parts shortage" will be key and the only way to solve it is going to be alliances where companies like Cisco, Nokia, etc. invest in Fabs to guarantee parts... sort of like buy a corner of the fab.... they might even decide to do it all so they don't tip their hand to competitors... This is where I would look for over capacity... at least this is my thought for today. 8) Cheers. Kirk out

To: Ian@SI who wrote (36679)	8/12/2000 10:24:54 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Ian, There's been several years of underinvestment. We have a chip shortage; and we still don't have enough investment to cause capacity to catch up with demand Very well spoken. We have a confluence of factors necessitating that greater investment be undertaken, simply in order to catch up with the underinvestment of the past few years. The end result of this should be a few years of above the mean spending to counter what we saw in the late 90's semiconductor recession. However, investors look at ANY spending above the mean as leading to overcapacity. This is our isue as investors right now and one which will hold these stocks down as least for the ST. I am inclined to believe this will subside over the coming quarters since I beliebve logic always prevails. I also believe we will see irrational exhuberance for the sector just as now we are witnessnessing irrational inexhuberance for the sector. Brian

To: Ian@SI who wrote (36679)	8/12/2000 12:20:19 PM
From: Demosthenes	Respond to of 70976

Ian, <<No capacity builds by DRAM makers except Samsung. Others have reached the end of the line by doing shrinks. Next phase of the upleg will be fueled by the DRAM makers....>> I talked to UTEK IR last week. They are very busy building Saturn Spectrum 3's, (their bump tech. for DRAM). Months ago they implied these machines were already at Samsung, but couldn't say specifically. AZ, CEO, said on recent CC's that the market for this bump machine will be 200-300 units over the next 2 years. I really questioned that when he first said it six months ago, but after the AMAT CC I can see the reason in it. I think we have to give AZ some credit for seeing this shortage from afar. I still own my shares so I hope they make a killing. Also, AMAT engineers are on UTEK's premises every day working out the LTP technology (that AMAT bot a license to) on the machine UTEK built. With AMAT so interested in LTP combined with the litho hole in AMAT's offerings, I believe the wedding bells are set to ring. D