advalorem:
"My prediction is that the Pocket PC is the industry leader in the next 2 years (say by 9/30/2002). I encourage harrassment, verbal attacks, and insults if I am wrong, or not even close in my prediction. :)"
Interesting speculation. It certainly is possible. Microsoft has a huge advantage in that their PDA interface can hook up to existing PC software products such as Microsoft Office, Internet Explorer, etc. much more smoothly and with tighter integration than PALM's warez.
The only questions are:
(1) Can Microsoft move faster than the growth of the industry, and
(2) does it care enough to pour that many resources into the handheld arena.
My guess is no on both fronts.
(1) Can Microsoft move faster than the growth of the industry?
The sector will grow faster than Microsoft can accomodate. Microsoft has traditionally been strongest in fairly mature, 20% growth markets, not 200% growth markets. Their typical strategy is to wait until the market settles, proves its viability, and then buy the major players.
Example: In 1994, Microsoft introduced MSN, which, having the advantage of being bundled with each new PC, was poised to take over the internet... At least that's what industry pundits speculated. Well, their moderate 20% yearly growth of MSN was blown away by the growth of the much larger internet market. Microsoft remains a non-player in the ISP arena, although it's not for lack of trying and funds. AOL, et al. were never under any threat from Microsoft, although their entry into the market created quite a stir at the time.
(2) Does Microsoft care enough to pour that many resources into the handheld arena?
No. It's an emerging market, and traditionally Microsoft has stuck its pseudopod into such small markets and let it grow and wither without much support until something radical happens--- like some top bonehead in the industry declares that it's their turn to topple Microsoft. At which point, Microsoft focuses all of its guns and fires in that direction. As large as Microsoft is, I believe that it's spread too thin with its guns pointed at the internet, at the upcoming $500M X-Box launch, and at the DOJ.
Handhelds do not threaten the existence of PC's and Microsoft. If anything, they complement it. However, the internet, the set-top box, and the DOJ are very real threats to Microsoft's livelihood--- the PC, its OS, and its monopoly!
Handhelds are an interesting 4th or 5th place, but haven't come into the mainstream and haven't come into a revenue range which will greatly pique Microsoft's interest. In other words, there are larger, faster growing, more established markets out there. Handhelds are an interesting pipsqueak niche of an industry for Microsoft.
Once the market gets pretty big and perhaps somehow threatens to make Microsoft obsolete, then Microsoft will aim its guns there. Until then, I would consider Microsoft just another competitor in an already fiercely competitive market, as likely to come out on top as any other.
The main thing going for PALM is its market share. Regardless of technology, larger market share means more developers, which means more value added to the platform. This is the lesson learned by the ascent of Microsoft in the 80's, Apple's decline in the 80's and 90's, and Sony's Playstation entry in the 90's.
As long as PALM can continue to support and court its developers to its OS, maintains strong competition among its hardware manufacturers, prices will remain low, technology will advance, and developers will flock to whatever has the largest market share. This proper execution will maintain their market share lead. If they simply cannot execute, then they will fail. But it will not be because Microsoft beat them. If PALM fails, it will be because they beat themselves (ala Apple in not licensing their OS, not opening their systems to developers, protecting their 50% profit margin on hardware, etc. etc.).
Okay, enough rambling...
El Guapo |
