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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (31902)	8/12/2000 5:48:19 PM
From: Paullie	Respond to of 57584

Very good points greenlaw4-7. While I am not as seasoned as you, I feel very much the same way. In fact this morning I was doing some historical research on the stock market for the past 80 or so years. Using the DOW and NASD averages, I created a table of some of the high points and low points in each index. Interestingly, using a very primitive analysis that I may refine if I have the time, I came to the conclusion that it is the DOW and not the NASD that is in for a big correction. See the NASD had a 35% correction or so this spring, which from a broad analysis of the markets is about the amount of correction that occurs initially after a huge run up. The DOW on the other hand has not had this massive correction since it has gained 400% or so from 1989. (No correction over 20% that is). So what does all this mean. Well, first let me say that after the historical corrections of 35% or more, the index (in this case, I am referring to the historical information of the DOW) will trade in a range and virtually remain constant for years (not constant, but a range that ends up at the same point years down the road at the same number it is today.) So this makes me wonder if we are not into that stage for the NASD. Sure the internet bubble has burst. Sure optical networking is exploding. Sure there is great growth in the wireless sector. Sure there is still overall growth in many companies and productivity improvements in the US. But just like all growth, there comes a levelling off point. Prior to that levelling off point there comes a point where the RATE of growth slows. We have seen this in MSFT - rate of growth slowing. We see this in other industries and companies, and we will see more in the future. Now, one more item - population. Currently, the baby boomer population is aging (no offense anyone!). But I take this to mean that as this group continues to age through the 40s-60s (which is almost the range right now) they will continue to place money into safer places, not willing to risk as much money to this volatile market. I have read the book "The Roaring 2000s" by Harry S. Dent and it got me excited on the potential for continued growth. He essentially places the timeframe for decreased growth to be between 2008-2010. Well, looking at the inflated stock markets today, the population shifts (which he discusses), I am beginning to believe that this time frame might actually be more like 2005, and MORE IMPORTANTLY, that the stock markets will begin to reflect a decreased rate of growth even before that. (Evidence as of this year - many companies and industries have had inflated growth projections that have been disproved with earnings - B2C, B2B, even wireless growth estimates were tinted - still great though don't get me wrong - and the big companies like MSFT are having trouble showing growth.) Please don't jump on me about the growth - I know that companies are growing at a tremedous rate, and I believe that they will continue to grow at great rates. BUT the rates will be slower than before - IMO. This is meant as a broad observation, very loosely linked with data and historical perspective. It is all my opinion. I also think that there is still plenty of opportunity to make money in the market, but for the time being I will tread water very carefully in these potentially treacherous conditions. I would like to start an ongoing discussion with anyone interested in the proper forum concerning what industries will prosper from about 2004 to 2020. I have a motive for this time frame - essentially, after I finish at my current job, I intend on going to get my MBA and am concerned that I will be entering the Business world when the growth is slowing and actually when there is a levelling off of growth and even a decline. With a decreasing population at that point, there will still be many opportunities, but they will be less because there will be less individuals to spend money, and essentially less money to be spent on generally the more lucrative growth industries. Sorry so long winded. Paullie (not proofread for grammar - my English teachers would shoot me for this!:)

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (31902)	8/12/2000 11:08:22 PM
From: carepedeum2000	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

good points green, to further those thoughts, the vix is at 21.19, big rallies do not start with the vix near 20, that is a sign of a top , not a bottom, the most bullish thing about the market is the dow breakout over 11,000, and the end of rising interest rates, that is all the good news, now what are the chances for a negative news surprise? big boys are on vacation, ipo's are sucking up dollars, oil is over $30 a barrell again, and everyone is getting excited? i can see the mo/mo taking us higher, but i dont see "the real rally" from this level, the market needs to smack us with one more big dose of reality before it will show us the "real rally" imo, until we see that , i think i will continue selling into strength ps rande- when looking for 7 digit gainers, are you counting the decimal point as a digit? <<gg>>