To: jlallen who wrote (29178 ) 8/13/2000 3:25:49 PM From: Don Hurst Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 769667 Below is from Abelson's column in this week's Barron's. Read it and weep. "A little postscript to the above: Back on July 10, we printed the prediction of a latterday Nostradamus specializing in presidential-election races. His name is Michael Lewis-Beck, and in real life he's a professor of political science at the University of Iowa. What inspired our interest was (a) he had made some very good calls in past elections; and (b) more importantly, in contrast to most political pundits and pollsters, he expected Gore to win. With both polls and punditry even more emphatically favoring Bush, readers have been nudging us to get a fresh reading from Mike (two mentions breed familiarity in this space). Which we dutifully requested and which, via e-mail, he graciously supplied. To wit: "My colleague, Charles Tien (political science, Hunter College) and I are still holding at close to earlier estimates of about 56% of the two-major-party vote for Gore. This is based on new numbers we originally plugged into the model in April. In particular, just released Commerce Department figures show GDP growth at 3.95% (annualized) over the first two quarters, a robust growth figure. And Clinton support in the July Gallup Poll is at 59%, which is quite good. Thus, as of today, we are still confident that Gore will achieve a comfortable victory over Bush." Since the communique was sent on Thursday, it's obvious that Mike's model excludes such nonessential stuff as the choice of a Vice President and concentrates strictly on substance (the economy) and sentiment (the President's popularity and which party is viewed as better for peace and prosperity)." Regards, Don