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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Ausdauer who wrote (13869)8/12/2000 10:54:40 PM
From: orkrious  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 60323
 
The fact that they are down to 1.5 million shares or so indicates SEG was not alone in the recent sell-off.


Aus, one thing that always concerned me about SNDK was its relatively concentrated institutional ownership. Almost 40% of the issued shares were owned by just three entities: SEG, Fidelity, and Forstmann-Leff. If one of them wanted to reduce their exposure, for whatever reason, the stock was destined to take a hit. As it turned out, not only did one of them want to reduce their exposure, SEG wanted out completely and it appears Fidelity dumped 2/3. Forstmann is down by 20%.

The 40% is now down into the single digits. To me that means the stock ownership is spread over many more hands, which should give it much less volatility and much more strength.

The Q3 earnings date is only eight weeks away. People are going to realize demand is still soaring. The all important Xmas season is fast approaching, more capacity is coming on line, and the SD card should begin shipping. Maybe Eli will even reiterate his Q2 CC comments about their not being enough capacity coming on line for years, and that INTC, ATML, AMD, and SSTI do not compete with SNDK. Q3 earnings will be spectacular, but nothing compared to what will happen when soaring demand at Xmas and beyond combine with more output and just slightly declining prices. Operational profits AND royalties are going to explode.

Who knows what Fidelity's reason were for selling. It may be that they are paring back all of their semiconductor companies. It also may be that some stupid analyst didn't dig deeply enough to find out the real story at SNDK. Regardless, they are going to miss this rocket ship.

Jay