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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (4301)	8/12/2000 9:39:46 PM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 5867

If memory serves me correctly, from 1991 to 1994, LRCX grew at a CAGR of 77%. 20% seems tame given the drivers for this boom relative to the drivers for that boom. FWIW, Ian.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (4301)	8/13/2000 11:22:01 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5867

The estimates the analysts put out periodically are just that - estimates. They are based on the best data available at any given time, but the data keeps changing as time progresses. For the past many months, the estimates have been on an upward trend. The stock prices, as we all know, grew very sharply from last fall to March, and since that time have been correcting sharply downward. How much further do we have to go (or are we already there?) on the downward trend before we reach the "reversal point" - no one knows for sure. I believe the 5 year growth rates given to the semi-equips are, in general, achievable over the 5 year period. In fact, an argument could probably be made on the other side - that the growth rates predicted are too small. I have to believe that the analysts surveyed by First Call believe their estimates when they put them forth. Otherwise, what do we have - a lot of people playing games? I don't know what reason they would have to do this - particularly with respect to estimating growth rates over the next 5 years. Don W.