To: Stewart D. Mackie who wrote (8162 ) 8/14/2000 1:23:28 AM From: DJBEINO Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9582 DRAM Microchip Makers Expect High Q4 Profits August 14, 2000 (TAIPEI) -- The worldwide supply of DRAM microchips will fall far short of actual demand in the second half of this year, according to Gartner Group Inc.'s Dataquest unit. It predicted that the average unit price of 64Mb DRAM microchips for all of 2000 could reach US$8.29. Many DRAM makers are expected to generate strong fourth quarter profits. The Q4 figures could even reach the sums of those makers' results during the previous three quarters, as the DRAM unit price may climb to US$10.30 in the second half, compared to US$5.70 in the first half. Several local DRAM makers, including Winbond Electronics Corp., Mosel Vitelic Inc., Powerchip Semiconductor Corp., Promos Technologies Inc. and Vanguard International Semiconductor Co., Ltd., are pricing their 64Mb DRAMs at US$8.50. And they will probably scale the prices up to at least US$9 in September. The continuous upward trend in the DRAM price given the potential short supply in the near future has convinced analysts that the unit price of 64Mb DRAM microchips is likely to rise above US$10, or even to US$11, in the fourth quarter. DRAM makers are eager to enjoy boom sales and profits ahead. Because many DRAM makers deferred their projects in order to upgrade and expand production for the last quarter of 2000, lower manufacturing costs and higher sales prices for DRAMs are expected for the year end. Many DRAM makers expect to earn fourth-quarter profits that are equivalent to the sums of their results for the initial three quarters. "Foreign capital and institutional investors are beginning to increase their holdings of DRAM issues on the stock market, due to the bright picture for the DRAM industry," a securities analyst said. Dataquest confirmed an estimate for lower DRAM supplies starting from the third quarter. According to Dataquest, the supply of 64Mb DRAM chips will only reach 1.07 billion units, or 3 percent short of the demand estimated at 1.11 billion units in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the demand for 64M DRAM will surge to 1.42 billion units, or 13 percent higher than the projected supply of 1.23 billion units. If the unit price of 64Mb DRAMs rises to more than US$10 in the fourth quarter, Mosel Vitelic will enjoy profits of NT$11.3 billion for 2000, or the equivalent of NT$4 a share. Winbond is likely to report NT$18 billion in profit for 2000, or NT$5 a share. Powerchip Semicon will post earnings per share (EPS) of NT$3.5, while Promos Tech is likely to report an EPS of around NT$4, and Vanguard an EPS of NT$2 for 2000.nikkeibp.asiabiztech.com