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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (13878)	8/13/2000 9:09:08 AM
From: Ausdauer	Respond to of 60323

Good Morning, Z I went back to the March 1999 proxy and found this... Seagate Technology, Inc.........6,141,374...........22.90% Scotts Valley, CA FMR Corp.(3)........................2,965,000...........11.06% Boston, MA These are all pre-split holdings and are significant. One can estimate that Fidelity owned about 6 million shares post-split before unloading about 4.5 million. I apologize for overstating the magnitude of their exodus. Frankly, I don't know the reasoning behind it. If you think of how badly we swooned with some of the major announcements this Spring I think you could easily conclude that they were selling on the good news. I think SEG was likely doing the same, thus accounting for the huge swings in share price and the deep nadir in May. When the plug is pulled on the NASDAQ there is a history of major shareholders leaving SNDK. I didn't realize that the NASDAQ hit another low in early October of 1998. At that time I was in a panic because I had bought shares in the low 20's, then averaged down in the upper-teens, mid-teens, and high single digits. By the time we hit $5.00/share I was devastated. Well, this time around when the NASDAQ tanked we only sank to $80.00 (unadjusted for the split). I am coming to the realization that the SanDisk paradox was due to major institutional support fleeing with every new announcement. At that point I was totally intoxicated by the quality of the announcements and the ramifications they had long-term. I recall vividly my elation when Mike G. found the judgement in favor of SanDisk and against Lexar Media. What I failed to realize was that this was just another excuse to sell SanDisk. I suspect that many were equally besotten with SanDisk at the time. When the stock hit $169 and change post-split an alarm sounded and a sell signal started flashing at all the major institutions... ...and it didn't stop until everyone was done unloading. I can't read any more into it at this point. Ausdauer

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (13878)	8/13/2000 9:20:16 AM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 60323

They have pretty good internal research. Z, maybe it has something to do with Eli's comment during the last CC: Message 14074866 I can't believe how many people don't understand our business. It is crazy. I just listened to the SSTI call saying that 80% of their sales came from 2Mbit flash. We sell 256Mbit flash. Toshiba, Sandsik, Hitatchi, and Samsung are the only companies that make this, and all of the other flash capacity being added isn't going to alleviate the situation. This was the first time I or anyone else on this board heard a comment from Eli stating that all of the flash capacity being added isn't likely to satisfy demand for their products for years. It is a reasonable assumption that the analysts at Fidelity hadn't heard this either. My guess is that since this was the last CC question, half the people listening still didn't catch this point, and they continue to sell. Analysts...Wake Up And Smell The Coffee Jay