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Technology Stocks : PALM - The rebirth of Palm Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KevRupert who wrote (1213)	8/13/2000 9:34:28 AM
From: Andre Williamson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6784

advalorem In the past (and currently) you seem to have placed weight on MS's "technical edge" in their products. I'm not saying that features don't matter, but I think that what MS thinks is the edge isn't. Take memory and color: Wince devices have had more memory AND color for far longer than Palm, and it hasn't helped a lick. They had those "advantages" pre-PocketPC. And in PocketPC they still have the color and memory edge, yet again, their market share has shrunk to single digits. What do users want out of a PDA? I'd say, and this is fully anecdotal and supported only by a survey of one: (all of the following important but in no particular order) Access to personal information Instant-on Access to timely information (weather, quotes, etc.) Ability to organize and schedule Ability to keep track of items and thoughts Quick, flawless backup process Anytime, anywhere Light and convenient Image (status, not screen) What most users don't particularly care about Integration with MS Office Web browsing Processor speed measurements What users can't stand Bulk Crashes Painful backup process and (here I admit I'm fully biased)... MSBully using monopoly profits to pick fights in other school's playgrounds and make others the guinea pigs for buggy products. These lists go along way (in my mind, at least :) in explaining why Palm OS now appears to have over 90% share. And I believe my last point is also telling: Half the country may own MS stock, but the other half hates MS and buy their products only because they have no real alternative (fractions not indicative of reality, just thrown out for illustrative purposes). So in order to win, MS has to have not only a better product, but a dramatically better one. Andre

To: KevRupert who wrote (1213)	8/14/2000 2:55:30 AM
From: lkj	Respond to of 6784

WHO ACTS AS THE LEADER, AND WHO REACTS. Advalorem, I would say that mostly Palm has been the leader and MSFT has been the follower. Take a look at the history of CE. It started as the solution to go into everything from STBs to Cars and from PDAs to Notebooks. Only in the latest release that MSFT has gotten a solution to address the PDA market. In the grandest view, CE has been learning and copying from Palm OS. In more specific terms, CE is only now talking about wireless communications for PDA, which Palm had as early as the pdQ, which dates back a couple of years. While CE is talking about a CE PDA-phone next year, the 2nd generation pdQ from Kyocera is coming out in a few months, adding the Palm VII, who has been the leader in wireless communication for PDAs? Now let's talk about UI. CE was known for its Win95 UI. It took MSFT three tries to come up with something that's easy for a pen-based UI. Who is copying from whom? CE had color long before Palm did. So you can say that Palm copies CE, but is color really a killer app with today's need for more key features such as wireless applications. I would seriously say that color and multimedia is a strategy that clearly missed the boat. If you need further evidence, take a look at RIM. Why is it flying off of the shelves in such fast pace? Going color is an eventual thing, adding functions such as MP3 is cool, but in my estimation, this is not the right time for them. We all think wireless connectivity will be the key in PDA growth in the next 12 months. Do you think a black and white display will download web pages much faster than colored ones? Can you believe that you will set your CE to download web pages in black and white, while all those 1000's of colors will be wasted because of the conservation of bandwidth? There are many little things that CE still need to improve to compete against the Palm OS. For example, inputting method. Even today, Palm still has a more accurate inputting method. So much about PDA is more than just making the software, because only system houses will understand all of the key issues involved with a PDA design, such as resource cost, battery life, weight, and many things that Microsoft still need to address better. Remember, CE is the one that dropped its price by 50%. This is because that the manufactures told MSFT that CE could compete again Palm at its old price. In my estimation, even at today's prices, it's hard for the hardware makers to compete. With the M100, price pressure is as much on Compaq and HP as it is on Handspring. The hardware cost on those CE device are just HUGE. I really don't know why Compaq and HP don't start licensing the Palm OS in addition to CE. Maybe because that Palm is selling hardware as well. Which means that we might see the selling of the hardware unit sooner rather than later. Without a doubt in my mind that going color and adding all that multimedia application was the sort-of-right applications at the wrong time. Getting wireless connectivity is the key in the next 12 months. At this moment, Palm has a HUGE lead. I am not discouting the threat of Microsoft. I am simply saying CE has been doing more of the copying than does Palm OS. In the next 12 months, we will be seeing more of the same thing. Regards, Khan