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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: f.simons who wrote (4844)	8/13/2000 4:03:10 PM
From: hmaly	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Frank Re...<<<Well the issue wasn't really whether AMD's pricing makes sense, but rather whether that pricing is causing stock price problems, right or wrong.<<<<< Frank, your question made no mention of stock price. I believe there is an irrational skittishness concerning all stocks on the market right now. LSI dropped 33% overnight because revenues were light 3% because of delays in supplies. CTXS dropped from 98 to 16 because earnings dropped temporarily 20%. Nokia dropped 25% overnight because of a lower 3rd quarter estimate for product introductions. I feel all of these drops were out of proportion to the crime. In AMD'S case, a delay in chipsets caused a delay in revenue from 2nd q. to 3-q or 4-q. Big deal, the revenue will eventually be recorded. AMD is still producing a large amount of high mhz chips;(look at the availability on pricewatch) and it is only natural to lower the price to stimulate sales. Secondly, while you don't say it, your question seems to hint that AMD should try to do things just so wall street is happy. Wall street probably will never be happy for long. I believe any company should take care of themselves first and foremost, wall street should be a secondary consideration. This insane pressure on companies to produce instantly is ruining the long term outlook for many companies. How competitive will our companies be if we short R & D just to satisfy some analyst' expectation. How many great inventions never would have been made because the analysts didn't like it. Who died and made these guys God?

To: f.simons who wrote (4844)	8/13/2000 9:56:27 PM
From: Joe NYC	Respond to of 275872

Frank, Well the issue wasn't really whether AMD's pricing makes sense, but rather whether that pricing is causing stock price problems, right or wrong. The pricing may be part of the problems with the stock, but: "right or wrong" - I believe wrong. AMD is not really cutting prices. It will be releasing a new top speed chip that will be in $800 range. Rather than talking actual MHz (or GHz), let's just say the fastest, the second fastest etc. If you look at it that way, there is no price cut. response to this idea about the same as I got when I suggested right after earnings that the street is looking at revenues more than earnings for tech companies, and AMD's revenues were weak in spite of record earnings. I agree with you there, but not completely. The revenue growth is more than enough for a company with PE of 20 or below. The growth would not be enough for company with PE of 100. It would be correct the market to punish a high-flyer severely, but I think the punishments that AMD received doesn't fit the "crime". Joe

To: f.simons who wrote (4844)	8/14/2000 8:50:43 AM
From: that_crazy_doug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

<< am seeing the response to this idea about the same as I got when I suggested right after earnings that the street is looking at revenues more than earnings for tech companies, and AMD's revenues were weak in spite of record earnings. >> Would you consider the revenues weak? I wasn't elated, but if I recall correctly, 13% sequential growth, and 100% YOY growth (roughly) sounds pretty good to me. It certainly wasn't as astounding as many here hoped for though. The real trick IMO will be what revenue growth looks like in 2001. AMD becomes a table pounding buy if there continues to be YOY revenue growth in 2001 because the PE looks like it's assuming we shrink in 2001. An interesting thing I've noticed on the thread, when were in Q1, there was a lot of sentiment like "Q1 will be good, but Q2 we'll finally get out thunderbird and duron, then we'll really kick butt". Then in Q2 it was "Q2 will be good, but once we get chipsets ready we'll really kick butt", and now we're in Q3, and you start seeing "Q3 will be good, but Q4 is when we'll really get it all together". By the collective wisdom of the thread, it's always the next quarter the stock price will jetison to the moon! As for price cuts effecting the stock price it's as good a theory as any. Could be price cuts, could be lack of durons, could be fear of willy, could be the fear of the semiconductor cycle ending. Certainly isn't good for my wallet no matter how you slice it.