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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (27551)	8/13/2000 7:42:26 PM
From: AllansAlias	Respond to of 42787

Lee, Nice post. I can not remember a weekend recently where I felt so, well, unsure. The move in many of the old-economy charts these last two weeks is incredible and I really thought there would be more "giving back" on Friday. The continuing lack of fear is incredible. We can call tech in a downtrend since that March high, but we are nowhere near the recognition stage if this is the case. Imagine if that 1500 point flag the composite is forming is actually a bull-flag! What's the target on that puppy!? -g The Dow triangle (forget the stupid diamond) is still not at its measured move. I think the Dow is rummy, but I have to admit that it is a beautiful move -- breaking out, testing the triangle on a retrace, and now moving up again. NYA I pay more attention to and the move on Friday after only two days of mild giving indicates to me that it wants to make another new high. Another little push in the S&P400 and we'll be testing one of those wedges the whole world broke down out of back in late July. Breadth seems to be filling in nicely since the May lows in terms of stocks over MA's and highs:lows, but that commercial short position on the spoos, while flattening some, is still massive. I watch the value line index as a confirming chart and it had a nice reversal on Friday. It bounced back after giving up support. Draw a line from high of 4/07 to high of 6/05. (If you have MetaStock or similar, use snap to price and extend left and right.) As you will see, that line was given up on Thursday and then we have a very bullish candle getting back over the line on Friday and engulfing 3 days. I still believe that this old-econ move is a head-fake, even if it last the better part of another month or more. I mean, are we going to move the NYA P/E's to tech levels? As has been mentioned here, perhaps we will see extreme levels of rotation in the next couple of weeks. (What sort of poison do you want? The PE-100 poison or the PE-50 variety? -g) On the tech side there is a case to be made both bull and bear. Friday's bounce surprised me. These mood swings point to some quick coiling for a bigger move. The thought of a bold move up in tech is shocking to me, but to rule it out is stupid. It is possible and I do not want to fight it if I see it unfolding. I don't know if it does any good to watch OEX as it's a Jekyl and Hyde sort of proposition. Is it reflecting the struggle between old and new, or will it point to the overall move? It is still a bullish chart that has only made higher lows since the Feb low. The weekly makes for an interesting study imo. Good trading. Allan.