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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: alburk who wrote (13882)	8/13/2000 10:16:00 PM
From: Ausdauer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

Andy, I will attempt to answer a few of your questions. I am actually working on two posts. One addresses an important hurdle that digital photography must clear. The second is an update of my original G.G. posts. You asked... Is $16.99 for 25 prints from a CF card expensive compared to 25 prints from conventional film? How much of a draw back is this added expense in convincing users to switch to digital photography? I plan to address this specific question in a separate post that I have been working on the past few days. I don't think it is fair to compare digital and film directly regarding cost for reasons I will explain later. It would be great if the cost came down to the same level as standard film developing and printing. To cut to the chase, I feel that $16.99 for 25 prints is too high, especially if you consider that you can print a decent 4 x 6 for about 45¢ at home with a decent inkjet printer. Frankly, I think the vast majority of digital camera users will end up putting photos on home pages, in on-line photo albums (where they can be both viewed and printed), and in e-mails. Another segment of consumers will print at home. An even larger percentage will do one or both of the above, but will also want prints similar to those obtained with standard film for friends and family without PC access or for picture frames and refridgerator art. These can be obtained on-line (although bandwith issues remain a significant obstacle), at standard film developing stores (if you can find one) and at kiosks (if you can afford it). Clearly, the cost of these options must compete with standard film. I would like to see individual prints at 50¢ or less. This is still a premium to standard film developing, but realize that digital photography allows you to deselect unwanted prints, thus justifying a slightly higher price. That is, instead of printing a whole roll of 24 or 36 prints for just a few "keepers" you have the option of just printing "keepers" and deleting all the "clinkers". Also, you have no film costs associated with the digital prints if you amortize the cost of the flash card over its usable lifespan. Andy, I think the majority of digital camera users will rely on one or all of the above-mentioned modalities to view images. The bottom line is that each solution needs to be simple, unencumbered and a fair value. We are still in the very early stages and it will take at least another year or two for the options to be defined more clearly. Are there any recent stats on marketshare of digital camera memory storage devices? CF vs SmartMedia vs Memory Stick vs disk drive products. Any stats on current camera model memory options that would indicate CF is achieving defacto standard status? Are progressively more manufacturers opting for CF to the exclusion of SmartMedia, Memory Stick and disk drive products? I have not seen a breakdown of CF vs. SM vs. MS, but the trend is definitely toward CF and away from the other form factors. SmartMedia has been a big seller despite its drawbacks. This is largely due to several successful product launches including the Diamond Rio! series and the Olympus and Fuji digital camera lines. The SanDisk/Toshiba JV adds a twist to the analysis as SM is a Toshiba product and I suspect that the joint foundry arrangements will afford SanDisk a reduced cost in producing SM. SanDisk has co-marketed SmartMedia at the retail level (as many others CF card manufacturers have) to help round out its product line, to give retailer the option for "one stop shopping" and to promote the SanDisk brand name. It would be preferable that SM design-ins be transitioned to CF or MMC, but I think that is unlikely. IMHO, CF and MMC (and SDMC) will slowly, but surely become the most prominent storage options. Is the PCMCIA "plug-in" just an option or a potential defacto standard for manufacturers of digital cameras? It is really just an option that allows CF to fit directly into a laptop. No additional software or drivers is needed as the card is automatically recognized upon insertion. I guess that's enough questions on that topic--whew! Right now I am struggling with SanDisk's gorilla status. I am still not sure if SanDisk will be a gorilla because of its IP in the flash arena combined with the size of the consumer markets flash serves or whether it will be because of the promotion of 3 proprietary defacto standards; CF, MMC and SDMC. It very may well turn out to be a gorilla for both reasons. Aus