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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (58180)	8/14/2000 1:00:49 PM
From: XBrit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Thank you Heinz. That interpretation of the money supply situation makes sense to me (not that I have any expertise -g-) So if money is NOT tightening, and if the dollar does not crash or oil prices take off, I'd guess there is not much chance of a dramatic break in the US markets in the next 6 months. Bob Brinker on this weekend's radio show said he expects the market to be "dismal" this fall, once the recent rally is over. I think he primarily considers the Nasdaq... and his main theme is that big-cap tech will face lower profit growth as the economy slows. So PE compression is inevitable. That view still makes sense to me. I can see SUNW EMC JDSU CSCO INTC ORCL and friends having a fairly bad time between now and early 2001. And their suffering would obviously subdue the whole market, particularly the Nasdaq. But other than those big-cap techs, looking at the old economy stocks, and the smaller tech stocks which have already had their haircuts, I now tend to think the most likely thing over the next 6 months is that they will drift in a trading range. BWDIK, of course.