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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: andreas_wonisch who wrote (5002)8/14/2000 4:51:37 PM
From: aburnerRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 275872
 
andreas,
re: - Maybe you could include the earnings from the comm division sale in your calculation? It's a one time gain but there was a (minor) one time gain in Q1 as well (included in the Q1 1.15 EPS).
Oops, forgot that. Here you go: according to the Q2 CC selling of CPD should account to a one time gain of $205M after tax, equaling to (based on my assumption of 176M shares) of $1.16. There will also "... be a one-time extra-ordinary cost of $24 million ..." for the long-term debt retired, meaning $-0.13 EPS. So total EPS including one time items would be $2.37.

The ASPs in Q2 could be higher if we assume a 1:1 mix of 7th generation chips and K6s if the ASPs for Athlons/Thunderbirds stay in the $200 region and Duron shipments stay relatively low. Of course this wouldn't conform with AMDs guidance (>$100 in Q4).
I assume you mean Q3 (instead of Q2), right? The reason that I'm sticking with AMD's guidance is that I assumed an ASP of $106 for Q2 and got burned! Of course there's upside possible here, but for now I'll go with a lower estimate. If AMD manages to surprise me to the upside, I'll have no problem with that! :)

The chipset revenues in Q4 should be higher due to 760 sales. If we assume up to 500,000 units (Joe even suggested some million units but I think this is unlikely) this would be approx. 20 million more revenues (asuming ASPs of $40 for the chipsets).
Agreed, but AMD needs to hurry up with the introduction and sampling. Verification by OEMs and ramping production will take additional time. And if things go wrong the 760 will probably miss the Xmas season. :( So at this time I'm cautious about this one.

Kind regards,
ABurner.