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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (2619)	8/15/2000 10:36:30 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

Heating oil shortage, NG shortage... all these are just preludes to the real shortage - OPEC hits the production wall in q1 next year. That's the heart and soul of my bear case. As long as fiat won against the limitations of commodities, the occassional excess of consumption were brought back into line with a few flicks of AG's whip. But the excessive growth of credit stimulating white hot growth and boom times around the world - at some point we began to live beyond our hydrocarbon means. It will soon be seen as a creation of paper wealth that can't be sustained and will issue in a massive shift in the way we live. I don't see much discussion about our per capita consumption of crude oil, or our lack of an energy policy, or our reckless consumption. One would think that in the new economy, with two decades of innovation and massive productivity gains we could have cleared the oil hurdle... But the truth remains - we consume just as much crude oil per capita as in 1973.