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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (58205)	8/14/2000 7:41:47 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

WHAT TO EXPECT NOW. August 14, 2000 Ord Oracle. The September S&P's tested and closed above last Wednesday high on lighter volume. The volume last Wednesday was 1.05 billion shares and today's volume was 788 million shares. A test of a previous high on lighter volume is a negative divergence. However, this negative divergence can be wiped out if the market continues to rally tomorrow on increased volume. There is a big consolidation building that started in May of 1999 on the Dow Jones Index. Once this consolidation is completed another up-leg should start that can take the Dow Jones near 14000. It is unclear now whether this is the start of it. We did some cycle studies and this potential big rally may be delayed to start until Mid October. For the short term it is unclear if today's action was an "Upthrust", which is bearish or a valid breaks out on the Dow Jones Index. Tomorrows trading should clear the picture. There are some short term bearish signs. The uptick readings reached plus 658 intraday on Friday and plus 710 intraday today, which are in the bearish camp. The "5 day ARMS" closed at 4.74, which is neutral and the "Percent Volume" closed at .53 and neutral. No bearish candlestick pattern was drawn today. If, however a bearish candlestick pattern shows up tomorrow. A bearish short-term signal could get generated. The Nasdaq Composite is not drawing bearish or bullish signs for the very short term. For longer term, it is caught in a huge trading range where 3000 is support and 5000 is resistance. Still long XAU. Have a nice day and don't take wooden shoe-horns.