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To: peter_luc who wrote (5016)	8/14/2000 5:55:56 PM
From: Mani1	Respond to of 275872

Peter re <<In that case: What will happen in Q3 2001 when Wilma will reach 2+GHz and probably be offered with DDR DRAM?>> AMD should be there with the Athlon as well. 2 GHz and DDR are the most likely scenario for AMD. AMD's management has said that 2.0 GHz should be here by "mid 2001". DDR of course will be here in couple of months or so. Also it seems like Athlon will be very competitive with willy, clock for clock. Hammer should also be around at that time which even at 32 bit should outperform Willy. Mani

To: peter_luc who wrote (5016)	8/14/2000 7:17:53 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: "The P6 core was designed by Intel's Hillsboro design team more than five years ago... The same team has been working on the Wilma/Foster core since 1995 They were supposed to be on a 4 year cycle. The chip has taken a year and a half longer than it's planned 4 years. Evidently whatever they tried first didn't work. The current P4 design is the second or third try and they are beyond out of time - did they really finish it or are they just shipping what they have? I think P4 is still a very big question mark. The team designing it, the resources they had, and the time they spent point to a great chip. But the delays, the planned redesign of the P3 for 2001/2002 .13 FABs and the pricing point to a flop. We'll know soon enough, but I think AMD's evolutionary designs with their 2-3 year time frame have been working out better than Intel's revolutionary designs with their 5 to 7 year time frames. By the time the Intel chips ship in quantity, the world they were planned for 6 to 8 years earlier has changed too much from what was expected. Regards, Dan

To: peter_luc who wrote (5016)	8/14/2000 7:31:41 PM
From: EricRR	Respond to of 275872

So, is the pure fact that Intel plans another version of the P III for mid 2001 enough to assume that the P4 will disappoint? Will the P4 be great but hold back by the high RAMBUS prices and therefore not enter high volume production? Willy is supposed to be intel's savior. But- 1)Intel has no volumes above 1GHz. 2)Willy will be introduced at 1.4GHz. 3)There will be a strong competitive threat in the gap. 4)Intel's roadmaps for willy don't show it as appropriate for workstation users. Intel has had a year to get Rambus shipments up to the needed volumes. This is not an excuse. Some people have speculated that intel wants to use willy to fight AMD in the high end consumer lines, while continuing to milk their market domination of the corporate market with slower products. Well, if you ran intel, would you take your most important market for granted? Intel is not that dumb, and Mustang with DDR is on the way. A piece of the puzzle is missing... ...That willy overheats (Gigamine style) and has a low IPC fits the whole. (The rumored prices for the P4 itself are relatively moderate.) In that case: What will happen in Q3 2001 when Wilma will reach 2+GHz and probably be offered with DDR DRAM? This won't happen until Q4 2001 at the absolute earliest. Before then intel must: 1) qualify P3 on 0.13 2) move 0.13 to copper 3) qualify willy on the new process. Intel has their work cut out for them.

To: peter_luc who wrote (5016)	8/14/2000 7:52:14 PM
From: Daniel Schuh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Peter, to add my (rather mundane) 2 bits to this, it's all speculation. I read through most of the thread on Aces, including all of Paul DeMone's posting, and he's speculating too. He seems to put massive stock in the P6 team's reputation, but Willy is already over a year late. So far, random rumors have Willy arriving any time from mid-Sept to late 4th quarter, with performance ranging from 20-30% worse per clock to 20-30% better per clock, and quantities ranging from gigamine-style paper launch to semiconeng's allegation of an old style Intel Classic massive quantities everywhere launch. I wouldn't conclude much of anything from all this, except that a massive launch in mid-Sept. looks pretty improbable at this point. Cheers, Dan.