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Technology Stocks : Gemstar Intl (GMST) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: unclewest who wrote (3631)	8/14/2000 9:48:48 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 6516

My records regarding ad revenue: 4Q99 $180,000 1Q00 $225,000 2Q00 $400,000 3Q00 $800,000 4Q00 $1,800,000 --Mike Buckley

To: unclewest who wrote (3631)	8/14/2000 9:53:39 PM
From: NY Stew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6516

unclewest, You made me look <g> Message 13811067 I believe that Gemstar will receive at least $10 per month per guide when it is all said and done. I have no proof to date but the mathematics are there as is the viewer behaviors which I know more of. This industry will burst at the seems and do a QCOM with business model legs. This interface is as natural as voice is to the telephone and Henry has the patents compensatable by recurring revenue streams. This is not an if but a when and I have no means for a prudent timetable. Regards Stew

To: unclewest who wrote (3631)	8/14/2000 9:59:51 PM
From: NY Stew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6516

unclewest, You made me look <g> Message 13811067 I believe that Gemstar will receive at least $10 per month per guide when it is all said and done. I have no proof to date but the mathematics are there as is viewer behavior. This industry will likely burst at the seems and do a QCOM with business model legs. The IPG interface is as natural to TV as voice is to the telephone and Henry has the patents to request and receive a rather robust stream of recurring revenues. This is not a question of if but a matter of when in my opinion. Regards Stew

To: unclewest who wrote (3631)	8/15/2000 12:18:45 PM
From: unclewest	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 6516

re...my last post. i sent this e-mail to some friends this morning. i had the ad revs wrong last night...actual revs (according to mike buckley...who is always right) are... 4Q99 $180,000 1Q00 $225,000 2Q00 $400,000 3Q00 $800,000 4Q00 $1,800,000 1Q01 $2,000,000+ this is not the growth i wanted to see. ultimately gmst is an advertising company imo...they make money many different ways...but because the margins are awesome, the ad revs are what are most attractive to me. still the company grossed 63 million this quarter and only 2 million was for ads....clearly there is lots of room for growth. but when does it happen? these are not tornado numbers. the projections i have seen vary from $10-21 per month, per household in ad revenues once critical mass is obtained. clearly the guides are selling, the guide equipped TVs and VCRs are available in all price ranges in every store now. the msft and aol STBs will rollout soon...e-books will roll-out too. the fact that gmst has deals with msft and aol is huge... in a few short years, with guides in 20 million homes that could amount to over $400 million per quarter in ad revs. but this market is in a show me the money "now" mode. gmst's forward pe is now 137...P/S is 55. those are very rich valuations for a company whose most highly rated revenue stream (advertising) appears to be slowing. appearances do count...the numbers i quoted above are actually only for gmst...if you add back tvgui, it looks much worse. is that why henry did not issue a combined report? last quarter gmst did 84 million in revs and 43 million in net (before 1x charges). this quarter 63 million and 29 million... last quarter YOY revenue growth was 65%...this quarter YOY is 40%. much of this is seasonality, but....sequentially, growth is down substantially. the old rule of thumb was after 2 quarters of declining growth...sell. today the market generally responds faster. surely gmst continues to grow...and i can see explosive growth ahead. but there was no explosion last quarter. i am not knocking 40% rev growth and 100% earnings growth...i am asking myself if i would buy a 137 PE stock with decreasing growth characteristics. i know my answer. forget my post from last night...i was too superficial. karen and i were sharing a bottle of wine and my thinking cap was off. one other cc detail came back to me....henry was asked about numbers of e-books for the roll-out...he responded that he did not know because there are some supply issues... i wondered about that...i bet the shortage is screens. with the worldwide shortage of screens...where were they going to get them? especially now, everyone is building inventory for the holidays...screens were ordered months ago....but this is a new business for gmst...they did not have orders in....funny. as the GG book says, crossing the chasm is the most difficult thing any new product does...how often do we see problems right at this point? anyone remember the 820 chipset? LOL and another detail...henry stated that the advertising sales staff at tvgui (100+ strong) would be added to the gmst sales staff of two to sell ads...that sounds great...but, i get tv guide in my tv and i don't see any big ads...if anything they seem to be declining now that i think about it. i am looking at the tvgui epg right now as i type this...only ads playing are for tv programs and pay per view movies. now showing chuck norris selling sports gear...where is ford, GM, GE, proctor and gamble, etc? how good is that sales force? if they are not selling for tvgui can they sell for gmst? imo, if you are gorilla gaming you have to hold because there is no competition, the patent portfolio is awesome and growing, revenues are growing, and the future looks quite bright. everyone knows the ipg/epg will be central to tv viewing....i use mine all day long. playing the GG way...you should not watch the day to day action...just come back in 3 months and we will look at the numbers again. better yet come back in a year or five. if you have a trader's traits, ask yourself if you would buy here. if the answer is no, and you are using gmst as the basis for margin...i believe it is imperitive to clean that up. looking at the gmst chart you will see a single low in the mid 30's....double bottoms are considered much stronger bases...it would not surprise me to see that bottom retested in a general market downturn. i believe gmst is a have to own stock.....it belongs in every portfolio. holding the stock long should pay handsome returns...short term the road may be rocky. of course if gmst does like cree and starts announcing more major deals a coupla days after earnings forget about this e-mail. i believe all but one of us got into gmst in the 30's...do not let a winner turn into a loser. a bit of profit taking may be in order here...but remember...this is a great long term keeper...right up there with cree imo... if you do sell some...don't forget to buy them back...that is the single biggest mistake many folks make...they trade out of a great company with huge potential and forget to buy the shares back. we have found a great company. do not let short term issues obscure your long term view.