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Strategies & Market Trends : Z PORTFOLIO -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Moerman who wrote (5052)	8/14/2000 10:57:32 PM
From: Larry S.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11568

Paul, I was surprised to read what you wrote about moving 100% to cash. I know traders do that, often every day. But to me, as an investor, i prefer to be in sectors that are showing strength. Health care and financials have been the strongest sectors this year so far, small and midcap issues have been the best performing capitalizations. I have been de-emphasizing tech and putting more dollars into the above mentioned areas. While you're strategy of legging in sounds great if the market tanks, what happens if this is the near term bottom and we have a strong rally from here. At any rate, best of luck.. we all make our strategies based on our best feel. larry

To: Paul Moerman who wrote (5052)	8/15/2000 6:11:47 AM
From: Ron McKinnon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11568

Paul, I'm glad you posted your move to 100% cash as it quickly brought out feedback here is my 3 cents first, look at how your strategy has worked over the last 5-10 years the other day I posted the returns for the DOW, NASD, Magellan, and Janus Enterprise how have you done vs those results? >>>I am within 5-10 years of drawing the money out in retirement. actually that is a very long time frame plus, I would imagine you may only take out a small, 5-10%, portion each year at that time so in reality most of your 401 $'s will be there for 10-20 years sometimes over caution is not the right move >>>The last third I'll reserve for either a climatic selloff or the third week of October over time the best time to be invested is 11/1 to 4/30 those six months have given the best historical returns if you had been all cash since early this year you would have had at least 2-3% interest returns vs a negative return in equities overall but remember that the "law of expectations" does not always come true since most people expect a correction each Oct many begin to sell early thus the "annual" drop may well come in Sept with a pop soon following >>>I know this is market timing, and not long term retirement investing, but it's what I'm comfortable doing! the question is does this method work well for you both from an investment return and from peace of mind that is the only criteria all the best PS the dow had a super move yesterday and "appears" to be in a mode for more the NASD is still stuttering most agree that the Fed may be done but with oil at virtually an all time high (non inflation adjusted) one needs to ask if all is rosey