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To: Mani1 who wrote (5058)	8/15/2000 12:35:10 AM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: Man!! You need your mouth washed out with soap! Who have you been hanging out with? I remmember how nice you were when you joined SI a mere 5 months ago. What the heck happened to you????j Mani, I know a lot more than I did 5 months ago. I was a naive punk 5 months ago that only thought the market went up. Now I've started to take the time to have a look at how poor the financial statements look at companies like Cisco, Intel, Dell, and Microsoft. It's not a secret what's going on. Hell I don't even have an accounting degree, but after 5 minutes of looking at any of these companies financial statements, it's painfully obvious how business is deteriorating. I've also done a lot of comparing of how this Ponzi-style bull markets compares with other ones. It's not even close. In 1929 the market got up to something like 70% of the GDP, in 1989 in Japan their market got up to about 125% of their GDP. We are currently sitting with the US stock bubble at well over 150% of our GDP, nothing like this has ever been seen before. The only thing holding up the market now is Al "the printing press" Greenspan. Here's what those big cap tech holders have to look forward to in the coming years, and I think bambs is being generous with these estimates..... "From the CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS, I got the net income numbers which shows 11 cents up from 8 cents same quarter last year. When you look at the actual net income number it showed about a 30% growth rate. No longs even commented on this number...this is the actual earnings number all things considered....Net income $796 up from $605 Most people think that this quarter was just amazing, right? Well to put things in perspective. Let's assume that CSCO repeats this quarters growth numbers in CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS for the next five years...30% growth... 2000 11 cents 2001 14.3 cents 2002 18.6 cents 2003 24.2 cents 2004 31.4 cents 2005 40.8 cents Times 40.8 cents by 4 for $1.63 for the year. Now lets give CSCO a PE of 50 in 2005. Still high considering stocks like AMAT that only have a PE of 44 and earnings and revenue growth of 83% and earnings growth of 132% from the same quarter last year (pro-forma) So, $1.63 times 50...$81.5 That gives you about a 3% anual return...you cover inflation...congrats. CSCO has to do what it did this quarter every quarter for five years! Still trade with a PE of 50 to give you a 3% return. What a great long term investment! What a risk! CSCO = DEAD MONEY! Don't blame me for pointing out the obvious...Nobody cares to argue with these numbers.... Come on Ed Forrest, Uncle Frank, Gary....why don't you try to explain this FACT! Away...tell everyone why the shouldn't worry about this....tell everyone that every quarter will be at least as good as this one for the next 5 years and that CSCO will trade with a P/E of 50 in 2005. Tell everyone how their money is safe....how they will be rich...how $100 is your target for the year...how it's not based on greed and dreams. Tell the CSCO board reads how much you want them to buy CSCO and make you old longs rich. Have a nice day, Bambs"