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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (48220)	8/15/2000 10:26:02 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 94695

ATG, i have no doubt that the unwinding of the last decade's excesses will be brutal - as we have discussed previously, the world is drowning in debt. if one looks at the frequent financial crises of the '90's (S&L, Mexico, Asia & Russia, Brazil), what has been done essentially is that the industrialized nations, especially the US, have increased their private sector debt enormously to catch the falling knives, i.e. problems that were the result of bad debt imploding elsewhere, were dealt with by expanding debt in the countries that escaped the crises. in the meantime, the countries that were at the center of the crises, i.e. most of SE Asia, have failed to enact the structural reforms necessary to put them on a sound footing, as they were rescued by the expansion of debt elsewhere. their own bad debt mountain is as big as ever. all this suggests to me that the moment a recession alights on US shores, a giant deflationary debt implosion spiral will sweep the globe. until then, buy the dip...-g- hb