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Biotech / Medical : Diversa Corporation (DVSA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: onurbius who wrote (15)	8/15/2000 10:02:57 PM
From: onurbius	Respond to of 144

Co:DVSA - DIVERSA CORP,$/share(US) Exchange:OTC MACROWORLD(tm) 7 day OUTLOOK 8/15/00 ------------------------------------------------------------ Latest Data: 8/15/00 closed at $24.06, down 0.25. This is within the -2.16 average daily change. The daily model indicates that this is an exceptionally Low price! ---------------------------------------------------- 7-day Alert: * see Alert on 5-week Outlook ** ------------------------------------------------------------ Forecast Summary: There is a 68% chance of being Lower in 7 days. Most likely 8/22/00 level is $22.88, a 4.9 decrease vs yesterday's $24.06. -------------------------------------------------- \| 70% confidence range\| \| Forecast Closing --------------------\| \| Days $/share Change High Low \| \|------------------------------------------------\| \| 08/16/00 26.22 2.16 27.72 24.72 \| \| 08/17/00 24.51 -1.71 26.05 22.97 \| \| 08/18/00 25.72 1.21 27.30 24.14 \| \| 08/19/00 Sat \| \| 08/20/00 Sun \| \| 08/21/00 24.29 -1.43 25.99 22.59 \| \| 08/22/00 22.87 -1.42 24.62 21.12 \| -------------------------------------------------- Co:DVSA - DIVERSA CORP,$/share(US) Exchange:OTC MACROWORLD(tm) 5 week OUTLOOK 8/15/00 ------------------------------------------------------------ Latest Week: 8/11/00 averaged $32.32, down 2.03. This is within the -8.40 average weekly change. The weekly model indicates that this is an exceptionally High price! ---------------------------------------------------- 5-week Alert: "B" rating for a Decline (possible Short position). StopLoss at $25.86 (review any Long positions). - watch future reports for signal reversal - ------------------------------------------------------------ Forecast Summary: There is a 85% chance of being Lower in 5 weeks. Most likely 9/15/00 level is $15.00, a 37.7 decrease vs latest $24.06/share. -------------------------------------------------- \| 70% confidence range\| \| Forecast Average --------------------\| \| Week of $/share Change High Low \| \|------------------------------------------------\| \| 08/18/00 24.97 -7.35 27.07 22.87 \| \| 08/25/00 16.29 -8.68 19.01 13.57 \| \| 09/01/00 15.97 -0.32 19.31 12.63 \| \| 09/08/00 11.01 -4.96 14.96 7.06 \| \| 09/15/00 15.00 3.99 19.57 10.43 \| -------------------------------------------------- However, the Daily model's outlook is Down. Co:DVSA - DIVERSA CORP,$/share(US) Exchange:OTC MACROWORLD(tm) 4 month OUTLOOK 8/14/00 ------------------------------------------------------------ Latest Month: Jul'00 averaged $38.78, up 8.13. This is within the -25.66 average monthly change. ---------------------------------------------------- 4-month Alert: - probability too low, no action recommended - ------------------------------------------------------------ Forecast Summary: - no forecasts - -------------------------------------------------- \| 70% confidence range\| \| Forecast Average --------------------\| \| Months $/share Change High Low \| \|------------------------------------------------\| \| - no forecasts - \| -------------------------------------------------- However, the Weekly model's outlook is Down. This report is based on mathematical calculations and, as such, no investment decision should be based solely on its conclusions.

To: onurbius who wrote (15)	8/15/2000 11:56:03 PM
From: Walkingshadow	Respond to of 144

Not always, onurbius........ This past spring I traded a stock that had a ton of shares coming out of lockup (can't remember the company.........possibly AVNX). My memory is sketchy, but as I recall the float was increased some 13-fold. Despite widespread fears (widely posted here on SI and elsewhere) that Armageddon would ensue the day the shares came out of lockup, nothing really happened to the share price on the dreaded day. And, if you closely examine the tables on sites that track shares coming out of lockup, you will find no consistent pattern to the reaction of the stock price to shares coming out of lockup. True, sometimes there is a dramatic effect, particularly if everybody is waiting to cash out. But if nobody wants to cash out, then nothing happens. And, in fact, I consider this to be a very bullish sign. If all the insiders suddenly could make themselves very rich, but refrain from doing so, then that most likely indicates that they think the company is just getting off the ground, and are willing to put their money where their mouth is. I like that. Still, if a large block of shares is coming out of lockup, it's probably wise to wait and see what happens before investing. If everybody cashes out, then I'm gone too. In the case of DVSA, I'd have to say you're right. The huge volume today and yesterday suggests massive cashing out, though this could be the underwriters rather than the company principals. Still, it looks like DVSA may have more downside from here. But I still think in the next couple of days it will likely correct back to the descending 10 day MA, though not necessarily filling the gap before declining again. As always, JMVHO........ Regards, Walkingshadow