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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (70929)	8/15/2000 1:14:24 PM
From: WWS	Respond to of 95453

Did anyone notice that the oil and gas sector is the subject of one of "Today's Cool Posts" on the SI home page? Apparently, we've been making so much noise about energy prices and thus raising the profile of the entire sector, that we've begun to attract the attention of the contra-trend practitioners: Message 14212272

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (70929)	8/15/2000 1:27:35 PM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 95453

Slider, That would shorten the list down to five: ESNJ CRZO PQUE PPP TLM TLM is the best buy of all the E & P right now in my opinion. Jim

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (70929)	8/15/2000 1:29:11 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

"Free Ride environment" ? You know the SI sentiment meter - is about to go into the contrarian profit taking mode - not yet, but nearly there (VBG). I know you guys don't want to hear that, but the SI sentiment meter - is the greatest technical indicator yet conceived by man (VBG) to determine buy & sell points in the oilpatch cycle. Lots of new faces/names here; that's an "early indicator" - in all honesty; this is the early stages of the final stage imho.- I think we reach the OSX index peak come Q1 2001 reporting. The "free ride" environment is if we get benign inflationary (their indicators - not mine) reports & the Fed passes here on Aug 22 - then it SHOULD be off to the races thru the Election - with the Fed on the sidelines. The only threat to the OSX - is an overall market blow off & that will only happen during this "free ride" environment if we get a significant negative surprise in the Govmt's Inflationary Indicator Reports... but ! - that's the foundation to my Oil to Gold - to short the market; play - because they are watching the wrong indicators, in addition to this simply being a "valuation multiple anomaly" market that has allways corrected & will allways correct." As far as the indicators the Market Bulls want us to use - their is so little credibility in these BLS reports etc and especially since "food & energy" etc DON'T COUNT !?!?! - their is little likliehood of anything stopping a nice market rally here shortly; other than a really negative CPI/PPI. Watch that & the crude oil/nat gas tape & it's smooth sailing. Short term; we're rallying on crude's momenteum here - a record price for Brent etc... we should see a mild re-trace more from lack of buying momenteum, than from any real selling; as soon as crude settles. But, a buy & hold, or add on the dips, or add laggards into strength strategy should be fine thru the elections - year end imo. I'm adding, mainly drillers/pipe (yes Im sold there now)some E&P's - mainly drillbit oriented value plays - low cfps multiples; but - I remain a committed seller into OSX 150-165 which I think we have a significant chance of rallying to - off of Q3 reporting - Q4 anticipation; or will see by Q1 2001 reporting at the very latest. There is simply no way poltically that we can expect present Oil & Gas Prices to remain in these levels for an extended time. The only reason OPEC will fail - is because if we have to - we'll grab 'em so tight by the balls - that their hearts & minds will soon follow. Nat Gas ? the incredible cap ex increases - for drilling both onshore & off; WILL undeniably bring the market back to equilibrium in early 2001 at the latest. - their is no Nat Gas "cartel" folks - the market overcorrected via the lack of investment in production/drilling for gas - it is a self balancing mechanism. Remember; as soon as we see analyst change their longterm Oil & Nat Gas price forecasts - all those earnings & price target models will have to change. The OSX valuations reached their peak in the 97-98 cycle nearly 9 months before earnings peaked. Imo - we are 12-15 mos away from this cycle's earnings peaking - thus; we're 3-6 mos away from a probable OSX peak valuation imo. That is why my "sell into record OSX high" timeframe expectation is late this fall - to early 2001; I'll short a NAZ over 4500-4800 (using puts initially) and continually rotate more portfolio weighting into Gold's on any further weakness from XAU 50. PS - jim L re: PGO - "the forgotten bastard child of the OSX" - that's an SI classic; "thread-byte" ! - true so far however. but, per that excellent link to the EXPLORER article: <<Ludlow expressed similar thoughts. "The majors are raking in the profits over last year," he said, "but they're not spending any more now than a year ago. They're investing in a lot of drilling to drill and complete wells to bring $30 oil to the balance sheet. And they're also paying down debt and buying back stock, which doesn't drive the need for seismic data." >> Drillers & pipe are the clear plays fundametnally; but I still like seismic over fabs for a laggard play & PGO remains the "GOM/FPSO" play as well...should the GOM open up. PGO & VTS have 50% to doubler upside if their is any Boom 2001 - they have to have... the SII CAM BJS WFT upside becomes limited here into further OSX appreciation; the drillers have the "earnings upside" - which creates the appreciation upside potential - because THEY above all other subsectors are going to have that HUGE sequential qtr over qtr EPS breakout - very soon; and that leads to analysts raising eps estimates & price targets & that brings in the mo-mo players. PS - Bullsky & others who led the charge on the "PIPE" plays - solid call; I'm adding. PS - Michael H : you know what; if I said the grass was green; you would automatically disagree.... give me a break; if we want to talk inflation, or commodities , or the Oil-Gold relationship on this thread on the weekend - WE WILL ! - scroll on by - it's not that hard...and "no" - I don't buy anything "hook,line & sinker" - but the "general" case that those links built is "one" I in "general" - do buy into. - also; puuuuuh leeeeze; why don't YOU quit cutting & pasting entire news releases !?!?! - the links, just the links man ! ======================================================================= I am a great "respecter" of History's lesson's & the prudence of heeding the exodus, or temperance of those of the likes of Buffet, Sir John Templeton, Soros, Julian Robertson et al... It thoroughly amazes me; that people can look at market cycles & valuation metrics as recently as the 70's & 80's and dismiss them - their lessons learned etc. Of one thing I am thoroughly sure - and that is, that History is about to teach yet another generation of "new paradigm" market belivers a lesson that they soon won't forget, yet alone surive... Black to Yellow Gold, then short the market; 'cause a historic Bear is a comin~ We shall see. - for now; let's enjoy the ride...