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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (27690)	8/15/2000 3:43:43 PM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

If I read the INDU bear flag right, this down move should carry us to about 11,000.

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (27690)	8/15/2000 3:45:31 PM
From: drsvelte	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

14:08 ET Sun Microsystems (SUNW) 116 5/16 +2 1/4 (+2%): Rallies to new 52-week high after issuing upbeat comments during mid-qtr conference call with analysts. SUNW says that demand has been above expectations, especially in North America. Company also taking market-share from competitors. Expects to meet demand, despite industry wide component shortages.

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (27690)	8/15/2000 4:02:05 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 42787

Sun Microsystems (SUNW) 117 3/16 +3 1/8: The Sun also rises, and rises, and rises... Bolstered by a positive reaction to its mid-quarter conference call, SUNW's stock surging to a new all-time high in active, though not spectacular, trading... Analysts encouraged by management guidance on demand and by reassurances that tight market for components won't derail company's revenue growth... According to CNBC, Merrill analyst noted that if components don't hinder sales, than projected revenue growth of 40% may be too conservative... While the news from the conference call has to be considered positive, investors need to ask if the positives are already priced in... SUNW has exhibited impressive resiliency throughout the year - holding up well during the Spring debacle, and then marching steadily higher in recent months while much of the sector was stuck in neutral... For the year, the stock is up an eye-opening 51%... And while conventional wisdom suggests sticking with stocks with high relative strength and positive earnings momentum, at current prices SUNW is trading at 90.8x estimated FY01 earnings and 72.3x projected FY02 results... Those are Cisco (CSCO) like valuations, and look what has happened to CSCO since it was assigned such lofty valuations (sideways)... Traders should also consider that SUNW's projected long-term growth rate of 22.7% is well below that of CSCO's (32.3%)... Even if the street nudges estimates a bit higher in the days to come, the multiples are hard to swallow... Any disappointment, and with the expectations bar set so high it doesn't take much to disappoint, and the stock will get hit hard... In Briefing.com's opinion if you don't already own SUNW, it's too late to get in now (as the risk/reward ratio is decidedly negative)... If you've been fortunate/smart enough to own SUNW for the past eight months or more, than historically high valuations suggests that now would be a good time to consider how you want to protect those hard-earned profits... On a final note, there has been speculation that the company will announce a 2-for-1 split... If it does so, the news could well underpin the stock into the split, after which the above concerns would move back to the forefront. -- Robert Walberg, Briefing.com

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (27690)	8/15/2000 4:14:12 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

DMP, the market is not "weird" it's a collection of to many over valued junk stocks mostly in the Hi Tech area. That is why it seems it is acting "weird". Yep they killed HWP down $4.5 to 114 billion and hyped the hype SUNW up $3.5 to $181 billion. Any one with half a brain will read trough the bravado and big mouths of SUNW who degrade every one else, but for the time being the gamblers prefer SUNW as a hype stock. (collected some pennies before the call) Big mouth Cramer is long the stock at those prices Haim