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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ali Chen who wrote (5143)	8/15/2000 11:30:47 PM
From: hmaly	Respond to of 275872

Ali <<. In Q1-Q2 Intel was stumbling with yields of high-speed parts, stepping A2 (and even B0 I guess) were buggy, overheating, etc. AMD could easily sell into this market and gain share and win OEM designs if the Athlon "infrastructure" could be more "stable". They didn't << When you say "They Didn't" I assume you mean the athlon motherboards weren't stable, not that AMD DIDN'T SELL all of their chips. First of all, Chuck and I were discussing the Duron which wasn't even introduced until end of June, how could this have affected q1 and q2 sales. Amd did easily sell into that market as AMD upped their share to 17% of market and 90% if 1ghz market for q1 and q2. <<<2. Those customers who were willing to buy AMD-based systems, they bought Celerons or P-III-600, and now are out of market. They will not shop during X-mas. This opportunity has been lost.<<<< First of all, there were plenty of Athlon and K6-2 systems for sale as far as I know; so while I feel sorry for anyone stuck with an Intel based machine, it certainly wasn't because there weren't any AMD based machines available. <<<<<3. Intel has presumably fixed the yield problem with 933+ parts going 5% shrink on C0 P-III. Close to Xmas AMD will lose high-end sales to these Intel machines, and will have to sell those parts at a discount. Do you see any gain here? It is sad that you do not understand such a simple thing.<<<< Where did you hear that, from Elmer, that Intel has started shipping the 933 mhz. Secondly , Chuck and I were discussing the Duron; a low end chip competing against the Celly; not the T-bird which has been shipping by GTW and others for wks now, and which did indeed make the back to school sales season. Perhaps you should read your own Quote <<It is sad that you do not understand such a simple thing.<<<< <<<<<It was decided early on to let the chipset makers design the chipsets.> No one can design anything until a proof of concept is present and some experience dealing with the new bus/system architecture is accumulated. You are very naive. The 750 maybe was good as a proof of concept. However, other chipset "designers" are late, for some reason. <<<< Thanks for backing me up here. That is precisely my argument to Chuck, that while the chips were ready the chipsets and motherboards weren't. Neither Via or AMD'S chipset designers could start designing the chipset until the proof of concept design were done. It takes time to design the chipset, get the chipset over to the motherboard manufacturer and design the board. That's why Duron didn't make the school season. <<<<There are no delays without underlying problems, and AMD seems to be incapable to assist in solving them.<<<< I am not sure what you mean here but I am sure AMD has enough of their own problems to solve without trying to solve everyone elses problem. <<<<outsourcing> As far as everyone knows, 750 was fabbed not at AMD fabs.<<<<< Well you got me there, having the 750 fab eslewhere is one way of outsourcing. Another is to have the chipset designed and manufactured outside AMD.. wHAT IS YOUR POINT <<<<AMD HAS NO CONTROL OVER VIA,SIS,ALI or anyone else.> They should have total control over their own "Platform Products Division", don't they? <<< Is this a trick question? I'll bite. Yes, AMD has control over their own "Platform products division" I knew I could get at least one of your very difficult questions correct. <<<*No one gives a sht about your business<<** I assume that means you have no intention of showing up on my doorstep and telling me how to do my business. We can only be thankful for that. There are laws against having too many bloody pulps laying around outside one's front door. <<But it is a straight business of a company shareholder to question how the company's runs its business. <<< Once again I am not sure if I understand the statement; but I assume you are trying to say it is the shareholders business to question managment. Not sure on the answer there. If Chuck truly believed AMD mngt. was lying and imcompetent, I would believe there are better venues out there than going on a board. On the other hand I can say that unfounded charges against management can have a very deleterious effect on the share price. Investors often base their decision whether to buy or sell based on management. So as far as I am concerned, I was just trying to protect my investment from the unfounded (chuck has yet to provide the proof I asked for.) scurrulous charges brought by Chuck. If he can provide proof I will apologize to him and anyone else who was offended. <<<<And this is not a doll business or automotive business where any supplier can make any parts any time. It is a business for bright intellectuals who are hard to find but easy to lose. <<<< Well judging by some of your questions and things you have said about my mental capacity,I guess that leaves you and me out. What is your point. That AMD'S management is bright and we shouldn't lose them; or they aren't so bright, and we should lose them?

To: Ali Chen who wrote (5143)	8/16/2000 12:40:03 PM
From: Petz	Respond to of 275872

Ali, I disagree that the chipset/mobo delays will have had a material effect on AMD once the year is out. AMD might have been able to sell and additional 100K Tbirds and 300K Durons if the infrastructure was perfect in Q2, at an ASP of $240 for the Tbirds and $80 for the Durons, thats increased sales of $48M. Instead these chips are valued at $40 each in inventory ($16M). AMD lost 0.15 on the bottom line. (I don't doubt that an additional 0.15 in profits and 1% in market share would have made a significant difference in stock price.) They'll probably recover 0.05 - 0.10 of that in Q3 and Q4, and since the infrastructure weakness continued up until about 3 weeks ago, they probably lost an additional $0.10 in Q3, half of which will be recovered in Q4. Net change of profit for Y2000: -0.15+0.07-0.10+0.05 = 0.13 Not material. I continue to believe that if AMD could make 2M more chips in Q3 than they are making, they wouldn't be able to sell them. Have you noticed unavailability of AMD processors on Pricewatch? I haven't. This means that there is plenty of supply for OEM's and new OEM's to soak up, if they so choose. Right now its easier to find socket A motherboards than it is to find Tbirds and Durons, so I don't think infrstructure is a problem for the rest of the quarter. Petz