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To: Boplicity who wrote (3761)	8/15/2000 10:25:34 PM
From: Si_Detective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13572

I've started to follow this thread few weeks ago, like it and thanks. Regarding the warning from Telcom semiconductor, it shouldn't come as a surprise, as all mayor handset cos already signaling a slow down. I think many investors still in denial mode. IMHO, three market segment are driving the semicoductor industry for past two years, PC(mature tech, but was growing fast last 2 yrs as many upgrade their PCs), wireless(much IC contents), and broadband. I upgrade my PC to 550M last year and don't think I'll upgrade it anytime soon, simply because it's more than adequate for me. Celluar phone, my family using several of them, and don't think we'll buy new one anytime soon because the current new features haven't up to a level we think we need a upgrade, probably wait till 3G? Broadband is the only area that I think I'll put some money into, eg. DSL or cable modem. Problem is we don't have either one of these in my area. So with 2 of the 3 driving forces slowing down, I just don't think it's worth a risk to invest in semi now. I've been mostly in semi for some time and almost totally got out of it in July, right now only holding GNSS and SIMG, two IC companies in Flat Panel Display/Digital CRT area, as I think people will look for style in PC area, like getting a cool FPD. The real pain in semis will probably shown up in Q3/Q4, many still doubt if we're going to have one anytime soon.

To: Boplicity who wrote (3761)	8/15/2000 10:36:18 PM
From: Si_Detective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13572

Chip industry warned to brace for imminent downturn By EBN staff Electronic Buyers' News (08/15/00, 05:10:17 PM EST) While most pundits see nothing but robust growth ahead for the semcionductor industry, one analyst is projecting a downturn by next year. Citing the classic signs of a cycle shift, Advanced Forecasting Inc. today warned of an industry-wide recession in early 2001. One early indicator of stagnation ahead, according to AFI: worldwide equipment sales leveled off in May and June at approximately April's $4.75 billion-per-month level. “We are referring to a significant slowdown affecting most of the segments in the IC industry,” said Moshe Handelsman, president of AFI, Cupertino, Calif. AFI's long-term quantitative forecasts indicate a slower rate of growth in the second half of 2000, followed by “less encouraging” results in 2001, the market research firm said. This view is in sharp contrast to general agreement in the industry that a downturn will not occur before 2002 or 2003. AFI is advising its clients to watch for signs of double bookings, and inflated sales forecasts from component vendors and OEMs. This thing always start from weaker companies and spread out to stronger one, so here is my list(analog semis) that I think will start to show some trouble; TLCM, MSCC, SIPX, POWI, FCS, IRF, ELNT, SMTC, MCRL, TXN, LLTC, MXIM and ADI etc...