To: Ausdauer who wrote (13952 ) 8/16/2000 12:43:42 AM From: Binx Bolling Respond to of 60323 "4) Smart Media to Supersede Compact Flash. I will be buying rounds of drinks the day somebody finally shoots the Smart Media horse . With any luck, the idiotic Sony Memory Stick will take the same route to the dumpster. Compact Flash is better because it has more capacity, period. What is the logic behind using Smart Media in a market where pixel count is doubling every couple of years and high-capacity storage is paramount? I don't understand why these camera companies can't bite the bullet and kill Smart Media. Unfulfilled tech promises Updated 2:50 PM ET August 15, 2000 by John C. Dvorak, PC Magazine 'm guessing that every reader has a personal peeve based on an unfulfilled promise. Vendors have to be continually reminded of their follies. Halfway through the year 2000 it dawned on me that numerous promises given to us computer users have not been fulfilled. Many of the promises, of course, were implicit and never actually made. But still, we were expecting them. Here is my short list of promises, and I will be greatly amused by what you, the reader, add to it. I'm guessing that every reader has a personal peeve based on an unfulfilled promise. And I'm certain that as a group, we can uncover hundreds of these implied promises. Here are my top seven: 1) Satellite Uplink/Downlink Cheap Internet Connection. This promise has been with us for at least five years, and every so often I hear the promise again. First we were going to see cheap uplink gear made in Taiwan. After that, we were going to see some cheap rooftop lash-up. We have not only seen nothing, but even the downlink-only satellite scheme doesn't seem to be marketed correctly. I'm fearful that this has gone nowhere because of poor marketing by Hughes and its downlink system, DirectPC. Everyone looks there and says, "people do not want a satellite hooked to a PC." This reminds me of the ISDN debacle, where the phone companies figured nobody really wanted high-speed Internet connectivity because ISDN didn't sell well. 2) Inexpensive Digital Flat Panels. Has anyone noticed the lull in the conversation regarding digital flat panels? Two years ago we were led to believe that these things would not only push aside analog flat panels but would become so cheap that CRTs would be lucky to have any market share. Instead we see cool, flat screen CRTs. What happened? 3) CMOS Cameras. From the first time I saw an image from a CMOS camera, I never bought into its promise to dominate the digital-camera business once it was perfected. The argument behind these cameras was simple: CCDs were expensive to make, and CMOS was cheap. Another part of the CMOS promise: It wouldn't take long to perfect. Hah. 4) Smart Media to Supersede Compact Flash. I will be buying rounds of drinks the day somebody finally shoots the Smart Media horse. With any luck, the idiotic Sony Memory Stick will take the same route to the dumpster. Compact Flash is better because it has more capacity, period. What is the logic behind using Smart Media in a market where pixel count is doubling every couple of years and high-capacity storage is paramount? I don't understand why these camera companies can't bite the bullet and kill Smart Media. 5) Web-Based Computing. Where exactly is that thin-client revolution? I'm waiting. Oh, wait. Nobody wants it. Ah! 6) DVD Takeover of CD-ROM Storage Device. A DVD drive doesn't cost much more to build into a machine than a CD-ROM drive does. We were all given the impression by the researchers that DVD would be a standard device on all computers by the year 2000. Games would be stamped onto DVDs and all sorts of cool things would come of it. Well? We're still waiting. 7) Handwriting/Voice Recognition. Yeah, I know these technologies have improved a little, but they still suck. What bugs me about handwriting and voice recognition is that way back when the promise was first made regarding these technologies, we were led to believe that when processor speed got faster, the problem would solve itself. Well, the promises started back in the days of 20- and 40-MHz processors. The experts hinted that everything would be peachy as soon as we got to 100 MHz. Hellooo! We're at a gigahertz, and I was expected to be able to hold an intelligent chat with the computer by now. Yeah, right. These are but a few of the unfulfilled promises I see. And, as you can tell, I'm glad a couple of these promises have gone unfulfilled. But there are a lot of other unfulfilled promises to be identified, and the vendors have to be continually reminded of their follies. The public also has to be reminded constantly that a lot of new gizmos are just bad ideas. Otherwise the public is susceptible to the brute force of PR campaigns. This short list of seven unfulfilled promises only represents the tip of the iceberg, and it would be just as easy to do a list of great successes that were unexpected. Who out there would have predicted, say five years ago, that ink jet printers would be able to produce a color print that looked like it came from a Kodak lab? Still, though, the unfulfilled promises are disappointing. Let's put together a definitive list and see if any of these promises ever come true."