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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (48230)	8/15/2000 11:23:57 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

you're right, the VIX requires a more differentiated view. a slow decline in the VIX is after all the equivalent of an unwinding of fear - the trick is to gauge when the point of complacency is reached. however, prior to the April debacle, the VIX began to move up and gave an early warning signal. the importance of the COT data lies in the fact that small traders and large speculators haven't been as unreservedly bullishly positioned during the entire bull market - and now that the market is more or less stalling for over a year, they all go long? that's not a good sign imo.