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To: Jdaasoc who wrote (49958)	8/16/2000 9:11:30 AM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Respond to of 93625

John, Advanced Forecasting has had a negative view since last October. Refer to: eet.com Semiconductor Business News (10/21/99, 2:15 p.m. EST) CUPERTINO, Calif. — It's premature to pop corks and celebrate the 1999 chip recovery, according to Advanced Forecasting Inc., an industry research firm that's maintaining "cautious pessimism" in its outlook until next month. The forecasting company today warned that double-booking of products could come back to bite chip suppliers and capital equipment houses by tricking them into believing that a long, strong recovery is underway. "We are maintaining cautious pessimism because our quantitative models are indicating that things may not be as rosy as many think," said Moshe Handelsman, president of Advanced Forecasting Inc. (AFI), based here. AFI is now warning clients that the industry may be on the verge of yet another downturn. "Our quantitative models continue to provide indications that are contrary to what most semiconductor industry analysts are calling for in the short-term future," said Handelsman. He said that November's measurements of the key economic factors behind AFI's forecasting model will be crucial as to whether or not his company issues a special alert to clients.