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Strategies & Market Trends : The Good-The Bad and The Ugly -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: architect* who wrote (487)8/16/2000 6:27:34 AM
From: Mike E.  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 8686
 
AFCI consensus estimates for FY 2000 are $0.50 yielding a FY 2000 PE of 76 and a PEG of 2.63

Good morning, John.

That's interesting and thanks for the info. Here is what Market Guide shows (current as of 6/00).
I think I see where the problem lies here - a one time legal settlement was thrown in latest
results, "skewing" the P/E. (Shame on me for not seeing that in my quick glance again yesterday.)

Thanks again for making me go look closer. I didn't buy any yesterday because I've already got
fibre plays in the portfolio (IFCI, MRVC). Still, AFCI has a history of positive earnings and sits
in that hot fibre sector. I keep it on the "front burner" (as it were) for a possible T/A play/trade.
And it made a Piercing Line candle pattern 2 days ago trying to call ~ $33 a near term bottom.

JMHO and thanks for pointing that out!

Take care,

Mike

Advanced Fibre Communic. Ticker: AFCI Page 1 of 10
Complete Financials: June 2000 Exchange NASD
FY END DEC
ISSUE DATA (08/11/00) PER SHARE DATA RATIOS
Price $ 35.56 EPS (TTM) $ 3.31 P/E (TTM) 10.73
52W High $ 89.38 Div. Rate $ 0.00 Yield 0.00 %
52W Low $ 14.00 Book Value $ 9.72 Price/Book 3.66
Shrs Out 80.23 Mil Cash $ 11.25 ROE (TTM) 50.29 %
Float 69.80 Mil Rev (TTM) $ 4.06 ROA (TTM) 37.36 %
Mon. Vol 52.47 Mil Curr. Ratio 3.27
Beta 2.22 LT Dbt/Eqty 0.00
BRIEF: AFCI designs and manufactures end-to-end distributed
multi-service access solutions for the portion of the
telecommunications network between the carrier's central
office and its subscribers. For the 6 months ended
6/30/00, revenues rose 36% to $186.7M. Net income totalled
$37.7M, up from $6M. Revenues reflect increased U.S. sales
to competitive local exchange carriers & regional bells. Net
income also reflects a $32.8M legal settlement gain.



Copyright (c) 2000, Market Guide Inc., All rights reserved (more)

Advanced Fibre Communic. QUARTERLY SUMMARY Page 2 of 10
HISTORICAL QUARTERLY RESULTS(Thousands of U.S. Dollars)
REVENUE 1997 1998 1999 2000
1st Qtr MAR 44,405 85,744 67,600 85,419
2nd Qtr JUN 61,207 85,345 69,758 101,232
3rd Qtr SEP 76,790 66,513 75,900
4th Qtr DEC 85,456 75,143 79,246
EPS (U.S. Dollars per share)
1st Qtr MAR 0.060 0.150 0.030 0.330
2nd Qtr JUN 0.103 0.090 0.040 0.110
3rd Qtr SEP 0.140 0.030 0.080
4th Qtr DEC 0.170 0.080 2.790

FY'92 = 7 months due to 5/29/92 inception. All Prfd. Stk.
converted into Common upon IPO completion. FY '99 & '00 Qs
are being restated for 5/00 acquisition of GVN Technologies.

DIVIDENDS EMPLOYEES
Last Dividend Decl. $ NA # Employees 722
Last Div Ex-Date NA Sales/Employee (TTM) 473,403
Last Div Pay Date NA Net. Income/Empl.(TTM) 390,393
Copyright (c) 2000, Market Guide Inc., All rights reserved (more)

Advanced Fibre Communic. COMPANY COMPARISON Page 3 of 10
TO THE TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND S&P 500 AGGREGATES
VALUATION RATIOS: COMPANY INDUSTRY S&P 500
P/E Ratio 10.73 39.42 33.54
Dividend Yield 0.00 0.79 1.13
Price to Tangible Book 3.66 13.26 13.23
Price to Book 3.66 8.57 9.22
Price to Free Cash Flow 42.39 49.17 40.74
GROWTH STATISTICS:
3 Yr Rev Growth 30.83 31.24 17.50
3 Yr EPS Growth 207.23 19.95 18.03
3 Yr Div Growth NM 16.98 11.16
Reinvestment Rate 100.00 84.19 77.08
PROFITABILITY RATIOS:
Net Profit Margin 82.47 7.62 12.13
Return on Equity 50.29 10.60 20.90
Interest Coverage NM 5.18 9.28
FINANCIAL STRENGTH RATIOS:
Current Ratio 3.27 2.14 1.71
LT Debt to Equity 0.00 0.62 0.71
Total Debt to Equity 0.00 0.76 0.92
Copyright (c) 2000, Market Guide Inc., All rights reserved (more)

Advanced Fibre Communic. TRADING & PRICE PERFORMANCE Page 4 of 10
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP INSIDER TRADING (Prev. 6 months)
% Shares Out. Owned 63.17 % Net Insider Trades -5
# of Institutions 339 # Buy Transactions 0
Total Shs Held 50.681 Mil # Sell Transactions 5
3 Mo. Net Purch. 2.275 Mil Net Shares Bought -0.038 Mil
3 Mo. Shs Purch. 9.178 Mil # Shares Bought 0.000 Mil
3 Mo. Shs Sold 6.903 Mil # Shares Sold 0.038 Mil

4 Week Price % Change -39.5% 4 Week Rel. Price % Change -37.9%
13 Week Price % Change -22.6% 13 Week Rel. Price % Change -25.2%
26 Week Price % Change -32.1% 26 Week Rel. Price % Change -36.0%
52 Week Price % Change 135.1% 52 Week Rel. Price % Change 112.2%
YTD Week Price % Change -20.4% YTD Week Rel. Price % Change -20.6%

SHORT INTEREST
Current month 0.673 Mil
Previous month 1.554 Mil
Avg Daily Vol. 2.863 Mil

MARKET MAKERS: COWN ISLD MASH INCA REDI MSCO
Copyright (c) 2000, Market Guide Inc., All rights reserved (more)

Advanced Fibre Communic. EQUITY, OFFICERS & ADDRESS Page 5 of 10
Common Stock $.01 Par, 7/00, 200M auth., 80,232,621 issd.
Insiders own approx. 8%. Tellabs, Inc. owns 5%. IPO:
10/96, 3.5M shares @ $16 by Morgan Stanley & Co. PO: 2/97,
2M shares (200K by the Co.) @ $44.25 by Morgan Stanley &
Co. 9/97 2-for-1 stock split.


OFFICERS: Donald Green, Chmn., John Schofield, Pres./CEO,
Gregory Steele, Sr. VP/COO/Acting VP-Ops., Keith Pratt,
VP/CFO/Asst. Secy., Jude Radeski, Contr. TRANSFER AGENT:
EquiServe. Company reincorporated 1995 in DE. Direct
inquiries to: Jeff Finn, Director of Investor Relations.
ADDRESS & PHONE NUMBERS
Advanced Fibre Communic.
1465 North McDowell Boulevard
Petaluma, CA 94954
PHONE: (707) 794-7700
FAX: (707) 794-7777