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To: The Ox who wrote (13790)	8/16/2000 1:14:14 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14427

This doesn't sound like a downturn to me<g> 26% growth year over year.... Semiconductor equipment capex to peak in 2001, according to analyst By Jack Robertson Electronic Buyers' News (08/15/00, 02:31:08 PM EST) Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. Tuesday forecast that a three-year hike in semiconductor-equipment spending will begin to taper off after 2001. Jay Deahna, an analyst in Menlo Park, Calif., for the financial investment firm, said semiconductor capital spending in 1999 average 23% of revenue and 26.3% of revenue in 2000, in both years exceeding the ratios of the last chip spending spree in 1993 and 1994. However, Deahna said the capex ratio in 2001, while still strong at 26.6% of revenue, will tail off from the 27.8% ratio achieved in 1995, the last year of the previous boom. He said the biggest change in the latest semiconductor capital spending surge is a shift away from building new capacity for PC-related chips. "In the current cycle, the PC food chain represents about 35% of global semiconductor capital spending," Deahna said in his report. "In the 1993-95 cycle, about 65% of semiconductor capital spending was focused on the PC food chain." Deahna said another important difference in the latest chip capex cycle is the ratio of spending on back-end assembly and test equipment, which at 4% of revenue is twice that of the 1993-95 cycle.