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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (4308)8/17/2000 4:16:10 AM
From: Dale Stempson  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 5867
 
Well, we've had a good short-term run and have come back to fill the gap. Things are definitely looking up. I ran across the following article that suggests there are no signs of a downturn through 2002. I agree with the comments regarding the potential smoothing out of the cycle.
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Semiconductor Equipment Revenues Up 98.5% In First Half Of 2000

8/14/00 8:26:00 AM
Source: Business Wire

Says The Information Network

Business Editors/Hi-Tech Writers

NEW TRIPOLI, Pa.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 14, 2000--Revenues for front-end processing equipment for semiconductor manufacturers rose 98.5% in the first half of 2000, according to the report "Equipment and Materials for Sub 0.25-Micron Processing: Timing, Trends, Issues, Market Analysis," recently published by The Information Network, a New Tripoli, PA-based market research company.

The top 10 equipment manufacturers for 1H00 are Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) - $4,922M; Tokyo Electron - $2,507M; Nikon - $1,031M; KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ:KLAC) - $895M; ASML (NASDAQ:ASML ) - $877M ; Lam Research (NASDAQ: LRCX) - $701M; Novellus (NASDAQ:NVLS) - $600M; Canon (NASDAQ:CANNY ) - $541M; SVG (NASDAQ:SVGI) - $423M; and ASM International (NASDAQ:ASMI ) - $421M.

For calendar year 2000, the worldwide equipment market will grow 46.1%, reaching revenues of $37.1 billion indicating strong sequential revenue growth in the second half of 2000.

"Despite the current stock market volatility, every equipment company interviewed for this report is observing greater bookings and revenue as the semiconductor manufacturers are ramping for increased capacity and transitioning to 300mm wafers and copper technology. We see no signs of a downturn through 2002," added Dr. Robert N. Castellano, President of The Information Network. "Most important, any slowdown in the semiconductor market will lessen the downturn. If capacity expansion is spread out more slowly over the next several years because semi manufacturers don't feel rapid expansion is critical, it will push back the anticipated downturn in the equipment market and smooth out the cyclical nature of the industry."

"The equipment market is six months behind the semiconductor market, and that market shows no signs of slowing, as bookings continue to grow and prices continue to firm," added Dr. Castellano. "The semiconductor market has already exhibited a 48% revenue increase on a year-to-year basis."

Worldwide semiconductor capital spending will grow 54.1% in 2000 and 40.6% in 2001. Thirteen new manufacturing fabs and 16 major expansions are slated for 2000 and 16 new fabs and 15 expansions in 2001. A total of 26 300mm fabs will be build over the next few years.

The Information Network is the leading consulting and market research company addressing the semiconductor, computer, and telecommunications industries.
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Regards - Dale