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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (83010)	8/16/2000 3:01:00 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Hi all; Re corrected roulette figures. Another error was that we used 365 days, while 365.25 would be more accurate. (G) Sure enough, there are 36 standard numbers in roulette, and a total of either 37 or 38 slots: dotcomcasinoguide.com I'll type in the calc for a single zero (i.e. 37 slots), but compute the other number also. Streaks of length one show up (among all possible streaks) with probability 19/37. A streak of length two would be 19/3718/37, while length three would happen 19/3718/3718/37. These probabilities are found by simply taking the chance that a streak survives to length "n-1", which is the (18/37)^n part, and then dies, with probability 19/37. The basic combinatorial function is then: 19/37 + 19/37x + 19/37x^2 + ... Wher x is 18/37. Using the same calculations given in the post linked to the one this one is linked to, this gives an average streak length of: AveStreakLength = 19/37(1 + 2x + 3x^2 + 4x^3 + ...) = 19/37(1-x)^-2 = 1.947 [1.900 for the double zero case]. This means that the streak rate is a bit higher than before. But the big difference is in the probability of a streak reaching length 38: 19/37 * (18/37)^37 = 1.3610^-12. With this change, and taking into account that streaks now start at an average of 1.947/2 per minute, I get a delay between expected 38 long streaks of 71810^9 minutes = 1.37 million years. With a double zero, it gets worse, 1.834*10^12 minutes = 3.49 million years. Wow, that's quite a difference... So what are some good casino stocks? -- Carl P.S. Try to avoid betting a lot of money on my ability to punch the number right on this calculator. I have a tendency to drop factors of two after 5pm.