To: Evolution who wrote (71050 ) 8/16/2000 7:24:33 PM From: Big Dog Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 95453 Hi guys...I haven't had a chance to follow the messages on the baord the last couple of days. But I saw KEG get mugged today...yuck! Here is what Dain has to say: KEG'S BUSINESS CONTINUES TO IMPROVE: EPS REPORT LIKELY TO BEAT CONSENSUS In the March quarter, the company was averaging approximately 46k-46.5k hours per week for its workover rig fleet. That moved to 47.5k-48.5k in the June quarter, which was a nice and significant improvement. Since early July, however, we have seen a step-change hours worked averaging more than 52k hours through this quarter. || ||As a result, utilization is very high with customers on the waiting list for rigs in many operating areas. We are hearing from E&P companies who have workover and remedial work planned but cannot get a rig for days and sometimes weeks. || ||As a natural progression of this, we are seeing rates increase. Adding to this is the likelihood that management will institute a price hike in addition to the normal strength in margins from the tight supply/demand balance. || ||The company reports earnings for the fourth quarter ending its July fiscal year on Monday, August 21, probably before the market opens. The Street is looking for a loss of ($0.01). We are at break-even. We are highly confident the report will beat the Street. || ||Since the secondary offering in June, the stock has lagged, probably as a result of some investors who played the deal and then sold the stock when it and the OSX didn't immediately rush to new highs. It still seems to be shaking off some of the technical effects of that drop. Monday's earnings report should have a positive effect. We recommend buying the stock in front of the earnings announcement.Stock Opinion Our price target on KEG remains at $15.50, as the discount versus its peer group should narrow with the deleveraging of the balance sheet and dropping debt from approximately $857 million in 1999 to approximately $575 million post-deal. Our $15.50 price target is based on a 12x enterprise/EBITDA multiple for calendar 2001 results. With the peer group of companies trading at 11x 2001 CFPS estimates and 11x enterprise value/EBITDA, our valuation target is reasonable, in our view. KEG shares are currently trading at a 35% discount to its peer group 2001 CFPS valuation, indicating significant relative as well as absolute performance potential.